FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Wehen: model vs market
| Source | FC Ingolstadt 04 | Draw | SV Wehen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53% | 25% | 22% |
| Market | 38% | 27% | 34% |
| Published | 42% | 27% | 31% |
| Edge | +15% | -3% | -13% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.84 vs 1.11.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices FC Ingolstadt 04 below the model: +15.3 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.56, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update.
FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Wehen odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FC Ingolstadt 04, 24 snapshots since 2026-09-25.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Ingolstadt 04 | 1.98 | 2.40 | +0.42 |
| Draw | 3.65 | 3.33 | -0.32 |
| SV Wehen | 3.45 | 2.66 | -0.79 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
FC Ingolstadt 04 and SV Wehen expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.94
- Attack rating (FC Ingolstadt 04 / SV Wehen)
- 0.88 / 0.71
- Defence rating (FC Ingolstadt 04 / SV Wehen)
- 1.05 / 1.20
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Wehen score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FC Ingolstadt 04 goals. Columns: SV Wehen goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Wehen goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Wehen
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Ingolstadt 04 | 42% | 2.39 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.72 | |
| SV Wehen | 31% | 3.20 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56% | 1.77 |
| Under 2.5 | 44% | 2.29 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.74 |
| No | 43% | 2.34 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FC Ingolstadt 04 or draw) | 69% | 1.45 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or SV Wehen) | 58% | 1.72 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Ingolstadt 04 win by 2+ | 31% | 3.23 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
FC Ingolstadt 04 and SV Wehen recent form
FC Ingolstadt 04
2W 1D 3L
SV Wehen
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FC Ingolstadt 04 at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
SV Wehen away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game on the road against 0.3 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: FC Ingolstadt 04 at home only, SV Wehen away only.
FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Wehen head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: FC Ingolstadt 04 0 · draws 1 · SV Wehen 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | SV Wehen | 2-1 | FC Ingolstadt 04 | 3. Liga |
| 2025-09-20 | FC Ingolstadt 04 | 0-0 | SV Wehen | 3. Liga |
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