Alemannia Aachen vs FC Viktoria Köln: model vs market
| Source | Alemannia Aachen | Draw | FC Viktoria Köln |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44% | 27% | 29% |
| Market | 44% | 24% | 31% |
| Published | 44% | 25% | 31% |
| Edge | 0% | +2% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.61 vs 1.27.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.12, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update.
Alemannia Aachen vs FC Viktoria Köln odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Alemannia Aachen, 24 snapshots since 2026-09-25.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alemannia Aachen | 2.05 | 2.04 | -0.00 |
| Draw | 3.80 | 3.73 | -0.07 |
| FC Viktoria Köln | 3.15 | 2.90 | -0.25 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Alemannia Aachen and FC Viktoria Köln expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.89
- Attack rating (Alemannia Aachen / FC Viktoria Köln)
- 1.18 / 1.24
- Defence rating (Alemannia Aachen / FC Viktoria Köln)
- 0.70 / 0.78
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Alemannia Aachen vs FC Viktoria Köln score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Alemannia Aachen goals. Columns: FC Viktoria Köln goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Alemannia Aachen vs FC Viktoria Köln goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 59%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Alemannia Aachen vs FC Viktoria Köln
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alemannia Aachen | 44% | 2.26 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.01 | |
| FC Viktoria Köln | 31% | 3.25 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55% | 1.82 |
| Under 2.5 | 45% | 2.23 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59% | 1.70 |
| No | 41% | 2.43 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Alemannia Aachen or draw) | 69% | 1.44 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or FC Viktoria Köln) | 56% | 1.80 | |
| Handicap -1 | Alemannia Aachen win by 2+ | 23% | 4.29 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Alemannia Aachen and FC Viktoria Köln recent form
Alemannia Aachen
2W 2D 2L
FC Viktoria Köln
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Alemannia Aachen at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FC Viktoria Köln away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.7 goals per match.
- They average 3.3 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
League matches this season before kick-off: Alemannia Aachen at home only, FC Viktoria Köln away only.
Alemannia Aachen vs FC Viktoria Köln head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Alemannia Aachen 1 · draws 0 · FC Viktoria Köln 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | FC Viktoria Köln | 0-3 | Alemannia Aachen | 3. Liga |
| 2025-12-13 | Alemannia Aachen | 0-3 | FC Viktoria Köln | 3. Liga |
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