SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs Waldhof Mannheim preview
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach faces Waldhof Mannheim with a 40% chance of winning according to the model's 1X2 probabilities. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which reflects a low-scoring match expectation. However, the probabilities for Over 2.5 goals stand at 47%, and both teams to score is at 53%, indicating that scoring could be more frequent than anticipated.
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach's recent form shows mixed results with L-D-D-W-L-D, while Waldhof Mannheim has struggled, recording W-L-W-L-L-L. The expected goals are closely matched, with SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach at 1.29 and Waldhof Mannheim at 1.26. This tight matchup could lead to unexpected outcomes, especially given the confidence grade of C, which suggests uncertainty in the predictions.
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs Waldhof Mannheim: model vs market
| Source | SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach | Draw | Waldhof Mannheim |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36% | 29% | 35% |
| Market | 41% | 25% | 34% |
| Published | 40% | 26% | 34% |
| Edge | -5% | +4% | +1% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.30, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs Waldhof Mannheim odds movement
Median bookmaker price on SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach, 24 snapshots since 2026-09-25.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach | 2.42 | 2.20 | -0.22 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.64 | +0.04 |
| Waldhof Mannheim | 2.62 | 2.67 | +0.05 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach and Waldhof Mannheim expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.55
- Attack rating (SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach / Waldhof Mannheim)
- 0.74 / 0.86
- Defence rating (SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach / Waldhof Mannheim)
- 1.00 / 1.00
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs Waldhof Mannheim score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach goals. Columns: Waldhof Mannheim goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs Waldhof Mannheim goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 53%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs Waldhof Mannheim
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach | 40% | 2.50 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.85 | |
| Waldhof Mannheim | 34% | 2.93 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47% | 2.13 |
| Under 2.5 | 53% | 1.88 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 1.88 |
| No | 47% | 2.14 | |
| Double chance | 1X (SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach or draw) | 66% | 1.52 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Waldhof Mannheim) | 60% | 1.67 | |
| Handicap -1 | SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach win by 2+ | 17% | 6.00 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach and Waldhof Mannheim recent form
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
1W 3D 2L
Waldhof Mannheim
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- 54% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Waldhof Mannheim away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach at home only, Waldhof Mannheim away only.
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