Fortuna Köln vs FC Saarbrücken preview
The fixture between Fortuna Köln and FC Saarbrücken shows a 43% probability for FC Saarbrücken to win, compared to 32% for Fortuna Köln. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with an 8% chance. Both teams have shown recent form that includes mixed results, which could impact the outcome.
With a 61% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 64% likelihood for both teams to score, there are strong indicators for an attacking match. However, the confidence grade is C, suggesting uncertainty in the predictions. This means that while the statistics favor a high-scoring game, recent performances could lead to a different result.
Fortuna Köln vs FC Saarbrücken: model vs market
| Source | Fortuna Köln | Draw | FC Saarbrücken |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37% | 26% | 38% |
| Market | 30% | 25% | 45% |
| Published | 32% | 25% | 43% |
| Edge | +7% | 0% | -7% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.18, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Fortuna Köln vs FC Saarbrücken odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FC Saarbrücken, 24 snapshots since 2026-09-25.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Köln | 3.80 | 3.00 | -0.80 |
| Draw | 3.75 | 3.54 | -0.21 |
| FC Saarbrücken | 1.85 | 2.00 | +0.15 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Fortuna Köln and FC Saarbrücken expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.16
- Attack rating (Fortuna Köln / FC Saarbrücken)
- 0.87 / 1.28
- Defence rating (Fortuna Köln / FC Saarbrücken)
- 0.85 / 1.03
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Fortuna Köln vs FC Saarbrücken score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Fortuna Köln goals. Columns: FC Saarbrücken goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Fortuna Köln vs FC Saarbrücken goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 64%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Fortuna Köln vs FC Saarbrücken
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fortuna Köln | 32% | 3.17 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.94 | |
| FC Saarbrücken | 43% | 2.32 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61% | 1.63 |
| Under 2.5 | 39% | 2.58 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64% | 1.56 |
| No | 36% | 2.79 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Fortuna Köln or draw) | 57% | 1.76 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or FC Saarbrücken) | 68% | 1.46 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Saarbrücken win by 2+ | 19% | 5.21 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Fortuna Köln and FC Saarbrücken recent form
Fortuna Köln
2W 3D 1L
FC Saarbrücken
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Fortuna Köln at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game on the road against 0.3 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
FC Saarbrücken away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 3.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.8 goals per match.
- They average 3.3 goals per game on the road against 2.3 at home.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Fortuna Köln at home only, FC Saarbrücken away only.
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