MSV Duisburg vs Hoffenheim II: model vs market
| Source | MSV Duisburg | Draw | Hoffenheim II |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55% | 23% | 21% |
| Market | 54% | 23% | 23% |
| Published | 54% | 23% | 23% |
| Edge | +1% | 0% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.06 vs 1.23.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.78, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
MSV Duisburg vs Hoffenheim II odds movement
Median bookmaker price on MSV Duisburg, 24 snapshots since 2026-09-25.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| MSV Duisburg | 1.52 | 1.67 | +0.15 |
| Draw | 4.65 | 3.97 | -0.68 |
| Hoffenheim II | 5.10 | 3.92 | -1.18 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
MSV Duisburg and Hoffenheim II expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.29
- Attack rating (MSV Duisburg / Hoffenheim II)
- 1.29 / 1.05
- Defence rating (MSV Duisburg / Hoffenheim II)
- 0.80 / 0.91
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
MSV Duisburg vs Hoffenheim II score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: MSV Duisburg goals. Columns: Hoffenheim II goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
MSV Duisburg vs Hoffenheim II goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for MSV Duisburg vs Hoffenheim II
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | MSV Duisburg | 54% | 1.84 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.38 | |
| Hoffenheim II | 23% | 4.41 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64% | 1.57 |
| Under 2.5 | 36% | 2.77 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.59 |
| No | 37% | 2.68 | |
| Double chance | 1X (MSV Duisburg or draw) | 77% | 1.29 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Hoffenheim II) | 46% | 2.20 | |
| Handicap -1 | MSV Duisburg win by 2+ | 34% | 2.95 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
MSV Duisburg and Hoffenheim II recent form
MSV Duisburg
4W 0D 2L
Hoffenheim II
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
MSV Duisburg at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Hoffenheim II away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: MSV Duisburg at home only, Hoffenheim II away only.
MSV Duisburg vs Hoffenheim II head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: MSV Duisburg 1 · draws 0 · Hoffenheim II 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | MSV Duisburg | 3-1 | Hoffenheim II | 3. Liga |
| 2025-11-21 | Hoffenheim II | 4-1 | MSV Duisburg | 3. Liga |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Preußen Münster vs Rot-Weiß Essen 2026-10-09
- SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Havelse — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Würzburger Kickers vs Hansa Rostock — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach v Waldhof Mannheim — match page 2026-10-10
- SV Meppen vs Stuttgart II — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Fortuna Köln vs FC Saarbrücken 2026-10-10
- FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Wehen 2026-10-11
- Alemannia Aachen v FC Viktoria Köln — match page 2026-10-11