Waldhof Mannheim vs FC Ingolstadt 04 preview
Waldhof Mannheim faces FC Ingolstadt 04 with a 43% chance of winning compared to 30% for Ingolstadt. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with the model's expectation of 1.58 goals for Mannheim and 1.29 for Ingolstadt. With a 55% probability for Over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, there is a strong indication of an active match.
However, the recent form shows Waldhof Mannheim has lost 4 of their last 6 matches, while Ingolstadt has mixed results with 2 wins in their last 6. This inconsistency could impact the expected outcomes. The confidence grade for this match is C, suggesting some uncertainty in the predictions.
Waldhof Mannheim vs FC Ingolstadt 04: model vs market
| Source | Waldhof Mannheim | Draw | FC Ingolstadt 04 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43% | 27% | 30% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 43% | 27% | 30% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Waldhof Mannheim and FC Ingolstadt 04 expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.86
- Attack rating (Waldhof Mannheim / FC Ingolstadt 04)
- 0.86 / 0.88
- Defence rating (Waldhof Mannheim / FC Ingolstadt 04)
- 1.00 / 1.05
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Waldhof Mannheim vs FC Ingolstadt 04 score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Waldhof Mannheim goals. Columns: FC Ingolstadt 04 goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Waldhof Mannheim vs FC Ingolstadt 04 goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 59%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Waldhof Mannheim vs FC Ingolstadt 04
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Waldhof Mannheim | 43% | 2.33 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.70 | |
| FC Ingolstadt 04 | 30% | 3.33 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.84 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.20 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59% | 1.71 |
| No | 41% | 2.41 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Waldhof Mannheim or draw) | 70% | 1.43 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or FC Ingolstadt 04) | 57% | 1.75 | |
| Handicap -1 | Waldhof Mannheim win by 2+ | 22% | 4.48 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Waldhof Mannheim and FC Ingolstadt 04 recent form
Waldhof Mannheim
2W 0D 4L
FC Ingolstadt 04
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Waldhof Mannheim at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FC Ingolstadt 04 away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Waldhof Mannheim at home only, FC Ingolstadt 04 away only.
Waldhof Mannheim vs FC Ingolstadt 04 head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Waldhof Mannheim 0 · draws 1 · FC Ingolstadt 04 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | FC Ingolstadt 04 | 5-1 | Waldhof Mannheim | 3. Liga |
| 2025-12-20 | Waldhof Mannheim | 2-2 | FC Ingolstadt 04 | 3. Liga |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Hansa Rostock v SV Meppen — match page 2026-10-13
- Rot-Weiß Essen vs Fortuna Köln 2026-10-13
- FC Saarbrücken v MSV Duisburg — match page 2026-10-13
- Havelse v Würzburger Kickers — match page 2026-10-13
- Preußen Münster vs Fortuna Düsseldorf — team news & stats 2026-10-14
- SV Wehen vs Alemannia Aachen 2026-10-14
- FC Viktoria Köln vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach — team news & stats 2026-10-14
- Verl vs SSV Jahn Regensburg — team news & stats 2026-10-14
Before and after this match
- Waldhof Mannheim, previous: SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach – Waldhof Mannheim, 2026-10-10
- FC Ingolstadt 04, previous: FC Ingolstadt 04 – SV Wehen, 2026-10-11