Hoffenheim II vs Verl preview
In the match between Hoffenheim II and Verl, the 1X2 probabilities show Hoffenheim II at 43%, Verl at 31%, and a draw at 26%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which has a 9% chance of occurring. Hoffenheim II has an expected goals figure of 1.69, while Verl sits at 1.40, suggesting a competitive match.
The model indicates a strong likelihood for Over 2.5 goals at 60% and both teams to score at 63%. However, Hoffenheim II's recent form includes a mix of results with 3 wins from their last 6 matches, while Verl has 4 wins in their last 6. This inconsistency could lead to unexpected outcomes.
Hoffenheim II vs Verl: model vs market
| Source | Hoffenheim II | Draw | Verl |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42% | 25% | 33% |
| Market | 43% | 24% | 33% |
| Published | 43% | 24% | 33% |
| Edge | -1% | +1% | 0% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.15, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Hoffenheim II vs Verl odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Hoffenheim II, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-13.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim II | 2.10 | 2.10 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.78 | 3.85 | +0.07 |
| Verl | 2.79 | 2.75 | -0.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Hoffenheim II and Verl expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.27
- Attack rating (Hoffenheim II / Verl)
- 1.05 / 0.96
- Defence rating (Hoffenheim II / Verl)
- 1.07 / 0.95
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Hoffenheim II vs Verl score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Hoffenheim II goals. Columns: Verl goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Hoffenheim II vs Verl goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 66%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Hoffenheim II vs Verl
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hoffenheim II | 43% | 2.33 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.17 | |
| Verl | 33% | 3.02 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63% | 1.58 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 2.73 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66% | 1.53 |
| No | 34% | 2.90 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Hoffenheim II or draw) | 67% | 1.49 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Verl) | 57% | 1.75 | |
| Handicap -1 | Hoffenheim II win by 2+ | 23% | 4.44 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Hoffenheim II and Verl recent form
Hoffenheim II
2W 1D 3L
Verl
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Hoffenheim II at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
Verl away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Hoffenheim II at home only, Verl away only.
Hoffenheim II vs Verl head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Hoffenheim II 0 · draws 0 · Verl 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-14 | Verl | 3-1 | Hoffenheim II | 3. Liga |
| 2025-09-13 | Hoffenheim II | 2-4 | Verl | 3. Liga |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
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- SSV Jahn Regensburg v SV Wehen — match page 2026-10-17
- FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Rot-Weiß Essen — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs Preußen Münster — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Alemannia Aachen vs Hansa Rostock — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Würzburger Kickers v Waldhof Mannheim — match page 2026-10-17
- MSV Duisburg vs FC Viktoria Köln 2026-10-18
- SV Meppen vs Havelse 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Hoffenheim II, previous: Stuttgart II v Hoffenheim II analysis
- Verl, previous: Verl vs SSV Jahn Regensburg: odds and pick