MTK Budapest vs Vasas preview
In the fixture between MTK Budapest and Vasas, the model gives Vasas a 43% chance to win, compared to 33% for MTK Budapest and 23% for a draw. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with an 8% probability. The expected goals indicate MTK Budapest at 1.69 and Vasas at 1.93, suggesting a competitive match.
The model also predicts a high likelihood of goals, with 70% for Over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score. However, the confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions. Variations in team performance or unexpected events could lead to different outcomes.
MTK Budapest vs Vasas: model vs market
| Source | MTK Budapest | Draw | Vasas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33% | 23% | 43% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 33% | 23% | 43% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
MTK Budapest and Vasas expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.61
- Attack rating (MTK Budapest / Vasas)
- 1.06 / 1.29
- Defence rating (MTK Budapest / Vasas)
- 1.04 / 0.99
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
MTK Budapest vs Vasas score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: MTK Budapest goals. Columns: Vasas goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
MTK Budapest vs Vasas goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 71%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for MTK Budapest vs Vasas
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | MTK Budapest | 33% | 2.99 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.26 | |
| Vasas | 43% | 2.32 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70% | 1.43 |
| Under 2.5 | 30% | 3.33 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71% | 1.42 |
| No | 29% | 3.39 | |
| Double chance | 1X (MTK Budapest or draw) | 57% | 1.76 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Vasas) | 67% | 1.50 | |
| Handicap -1 | Vasas win by 2+ | 24% | 4.11 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
MTK Budapest and Vasas recent form
MTK Budapest
1W 2D 3L
Vasas
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
MTK Budapest at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-3
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Vasas away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: MTK Budapest at home only, Vasas away only.
Before and after this match
- MTK Budapest, previous: Paks vs MTK Budapest: odds and pick
- Vasas, previous: Vasas v Kisvarda FC analysis