Paks vs MTK Budapest: model vs market
| Source | Paks | Draw | MTK Budapest |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41% | 23% | 36% |
| Market | 47% | 23% | 30% |
| Published | 45% | 23% | 32% |
| Edge | -6% | +1% | +5% |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.00, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Paks vs MTK Budapest odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Paks, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paks | 1.95 | 1.93 | -0.02 |
| Draw | 4.00 | 3.99 | -0.01 |
| MTK Budapest | 2.99 | 2.99 | -0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Paks and MTK Budapest expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.70
- Attack rating (Paks / MTK Budapest)
- 1.15 / 1.06
- Defence rating (Paks / MTK Budapest)
- 1.17 / 1.04
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Paks vs MTK Budapest score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Paks goals. Columns: MTK Budapest goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Paks vs MTK Budapest goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 72%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Paks vs MTK Budapest
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Paks | 45% | 2.20 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.38 | |
| MTK Budapest | 32% | 3.15 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72% | 1.40 |
| Under 2.5 | 28% | 3.51 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72% | 1.39 |
| No | 28% | 3.55 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Paks or draw) | 68% | 1.46 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or MTK Budapest) | 55% | 1.83 | |
| Handicap -1 | Paks win by 2+ | 23% | 4.39 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Paks and MTK Budapest recent form
Paks
2W 2D 2L
MTK Budapest
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Paks at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
MTK Budapest away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-3-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Paks at home only, MTK Budapest away only.
Paks vs MTK Budapest head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Paks 3 · draws 0 · MTK Budapest 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-20 | MTK Budapest | 0-2 | Paks | NB I |
| 2025-12-06 | Paks | 3-1 | MTK Budapest | NB I |
| 2025-08-24 | MTK Budapest | 2-3 | Paks | NB I |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
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- Zalaegerszegi TE v Nyiregyhaza — match page 2026-10-11
- Budapest Honved vs Ujpest — team news & stats 2026-10-11
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