Budapest Honved vs Ujpest: model vs market
| Source | Budapest Honved | Draw | Ujpest |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32% | 22% | 46% |
| Market | 38% | 26% | 37% |
| Published | 36% | 25% | 39% |
| Edge | -5% | -4% | +9% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.15 vs 1.79.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Ujpest below the model: +9.2 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.60, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Budapest Honved vs Ujpest odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Ujpest, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Budapest Honved | 2.42 | 2.39 | -0.04 |
| Draw | 3.62 | 3.48 | -0.15 |
| Ujpest | 2.49 | 2.45 | -0.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Budapest Honved and Ujpest expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.94
- Attack rating (Budapest Honved / Ujpest)
- 1.00 / 1.23
- Defence rating (Budapest Honved / Ujpest)
- 1.21 / 1.12
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Budapest Honved vs Ujpest score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Budapest Honved goals. Columns: Ujpest goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Budapest Honved vs Ujpest goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 74%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Budapest Honved vs Ujpest
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Budapest Honved | 36% | 2.76 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.02 | |
| Ujpest | 39% | 2.57 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75% | 1.33 |
| Under 2.5 | 25% | 4.05 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74% | 1.34 |
| No | 26% | 3.90 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Budapest Honved or draw) | 61% | 1.64 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Ujpest) | 64% | 1.57 | |
| Handicap -1 | Ujpest win by 2+ | 27% | 3.68 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Budapest Honved and Ujpest recent form
Budapest Honved
1W 2D 3L
Ujpest
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Budapest Honved at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Ujpest away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Budapest Honved at home only, Ujpest away only.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Vasas v Kisvarda FC — match page 2026-10-10
- Ferencvarosi TC vs Debreceni VSC 2026-10-10
- Paks vs MTK Budapest — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Zalaegerszegi TE v Nyiregyhaza — match page 2026-10-11
- Gyori ETO FC vs Puskas Academy 2026-10-11