Vasas vs Kisvarda FC preview
Vasas faces Kisvarda FC with a 53% probability of winning according to the model. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which suggests a strong chance for Over 2.5 goals at 53% and both teams to score at 54%.
However, the confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty. Kisvarda FC's recent form shows they have lost three of their last six matches, while Vasas has won four out of their last six. If Kisvarda FC improves their performance, it could challenge the expected outcome.
Vasas vs Kisvarda FC: model vs market
| Source | Vasas | Draw | Kisvarda FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55% | 25% | 20% |
| Market | 52% | 25% | 23% |
| Published | 53% | 25% | 22% |
| Edge | +3% | 0% | -3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.81 vs 1.00.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Vasas below the model: +3.0 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.80, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Vasas vs Kisvarda FC odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Vasas, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vasas | 1.79 | 1.73 | -0.05 |
| Draw | 3.77 | 3.65 | -0.12 |
| Kisvarda FC | 4.05 | 3.94 | -0.11 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Vasas and Kisvarda FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.82
- Attack rating (Vasas / Kisvarda FC)
- 1.29 / 0.70
- Defence rating (Vasas / Kisvarda FC)
- 0.99 / 0.88
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Vasas vs Kisvarda FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Vasas goals. Columns: Kisvarda FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Vasas vs Kisvarda FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Vasas vs Kisvarda FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vasas | 53% | 1.89 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.02 | |
| Kisvarda FC | 22% | 4.51 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53% | 1.87 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 2.15 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.85 |
| No | 46% | 2.18 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Vasas or draw) | 78% | 1.28 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Kisvarda FC) | 47% | 2.13 | |
| Handicap -1 | Vasas win by 2+ | 32% | 3.11 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Vasas and Kisvarda FC recent form
Vasas
4W 0D 2L
Kisvarda FC
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Vasas at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Kisvarda FC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
League matches this season before kick-off: Vasas at home only, Kisvarda FC away only.
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