FH hafnarfjordur vs Thor Akureyri preview
In the match between FH hafnarfjordur and Thor Akureyri, the 1X2 probabilities show FH hafnarfjordur at 63%, while Thor Akureyri stands at 16%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 10% chance according to our model. Additionally, there's a 63% probability for Over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance for both teams to score.
FH hafnarfjordur has an expected goals figure of 2.22, compared to Thor Akureyri's 1.04. Recent form indicates FH hafnarfjordur has mixed results with L-W-W-W-L-W, while Thor Akureyri has been more consistent with W-W-L-L-W-W. The confidence grade for this match is C, suggesting some uncertainty in the outcome.
FH hafnarfjordur vs Thor Akureyri: model vs market
| Source | FH hafnarfjordur | Draw | Thor Akureyri |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 63% | 21% | 16% |
| Market | 45% | 23% | 32% |
| Published | 49% | 23% | 28% |
| Edge | +5% | -1% | -4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.22 vs 1.05.
- The market prices FH hafnarfjordur below our published probability: +4.6 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.09, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +2.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
FH hafnarfjordur vs Thor Akureyri odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FH hafnarfjordur, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH hafnarfjordur | 1.87 | 2.05 | +0.18 |
| Draw | 3.88 | 3.90 | +0.02 |
| Thor Akureyri | 3.37 | 2.87 | -0.50 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
FH hafnarfjordur and Thor Akureyri expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.26
- Attack rating (FH hafnarfjordur / Thor Akureyri)
- 1.12 / 0.75
- Defence rating (FH hafnarfjordur / Thor Akureyri)
- 0.89 / 0.98
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FH hafnarfjordur vs Thor Akureyri score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FH hafnarfjordur goals. Columns: Thor Akureyri goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FH hafnarfjordur vs Thor Akureyri goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 59%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FH hafnarfjordur vs Thor Akureyri
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FH hafnarfjordur | 49% | 2.03 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.37 | |
| Thor Akureyri | 28% | 3.59 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63% | 1.58 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 2.72 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59% | 1.70 |
| No | 41% | 2.42 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FH hafnarfjordur or draw) | 72% | 1.39 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Thor Akureyri) | 51% | 1.97 | |
| Handicap -1 | FH hafnarfjordur win by 2+ | 41% | 2.44 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
FH hafnarfjordur and Thor Akureyri recent form
FH hafnarfjordur
4W 0D 2L
Thor Akureyri
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FH hafnarfjordur at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-5-4
- Win rate
- 31%
- Goals for / match
- 1.77
- Goals against / match
- 1.46
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 13
- They have won 7 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Thor Akureyri away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-9
- Win rate
- 15%
- Goals for / match
- 0.77
- Goals against / match
- 2.85
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 13
- They have won 8 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 26 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: FH hafnarfjordur at home only, Thor Akureyri away only.
FH hafnarfjordur vs Thor Akureyri head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: FH hafnarfjordur 3 · draws 2 · Thor Akureyri 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Thor Akureyri | 1-0 | FH hafnarfjordur | Úrvalsdeild |
| 2026-06-21 | FH hafnarfjordur | 1-1 | Thor Akureyri | Úrvalsdeild |
| 2026-04-04 | Thor Akureyri | 2-4 | FH hafnarfjordur | Cup |
| 2025-03-11 | Thor Akureyri | 2-2 | FH hafnarfjordur | League Cup |
| 2021-03-06 | FH hafnarfjordur | 4-0 | Thor Akureyri | League Cup |
| 2020-07-30 | FH hafnarfjordur | 3-1 | Thor Akureyri | Cup |
Other Relegation Group - 5 fixtures
Before and after this match
- FH hafnarfjordur, previous: IBV Vestmannaeyjar – FH hafnarfjordur, 2026-10-16
- Thor Akureyri, previous: Thor Akureyri – Stjarnan, 2026-10-17