Stjarnan vs Valur Reykjavik: model vs market
| Source | Stjarnan | Draw | Valur Reykjavik |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36% | 21% | 43% |
| Market | 48% | 22% | 30% |
| Published | 45% | 22% | 33% |
| Edge | -3% | 0% | +3% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Stjarnan vs Valur Reykjavik odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Stjarnan, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stjarnan | 1.84 | 1.90 | +0.06 |
| Draw | 4.30 | 4.20 | -0.10 |
| Valur Reykjavik | 3.25 | 3.05 | -0.21 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Stjarnan and Valur Reykjavik expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.27
- Attack rating (Stjarnan / Valur Reykjavik)
- 0.87 / 1.19
- Defence rating (Stjarnan / Valur Reykjavik)
- 1.19 / 1.16
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Stjarnan vs Valur Reykjavik score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Stjarnan goals. Columns: Valur Reykjavik goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Stjarnan vs Valur Reykjavik goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 78%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Stjarnan vs Valur Reykjavik
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Stjarnan | 45% | 2.22 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.62 | |
| Valur Reykjavik | 33% | 3.00 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 80% | 1.25 |
| Under 2.5 | 20% | 4.98 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 78% | 1.28 |
| No | 22% | 4.61 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Stjarnan or draw) | 67% | 1.50 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| X2 (draw or Valur Reykjavik) | 55% | 1.82 | |
| Handicap -1 | Stjarnan win by 2+ | 20% | 5.09 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Stjarnan and Valur Reykjavik recent form
Stjarnan
2W 1D 3L
Valur Reykjavik
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Stjarnan at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-2-6
- Win rate
- 38%
- Goals for / match
- 1.92
- Goals against / match
- 2.08
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 13
- They have won 9 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 26 matches.
Valur Reykjavik away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-1-6
- Win rate
- 42%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.58
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 12
- They have won 10 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Stjarnan at home only, Valur Reykjavik away only.
Stjarnan vs Valur Reykjavik head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Stjarnan 4 · draws 1 · Valur Reykjavik 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | Valur Reykjavik | 2-3 | Stjarnan | Úrvalsdeild |
| 2026-04-27 | Stjarnan | 2-4 | Valur Reykjavik | Úrvalsdeild |
| 2025-10-04 | Valur Reykjavik | 3-2 | Stjarnan | Úrvalsdeild |
| 2025-09-14 | Valur Reykjavik | 1-2 | Stjarnan | Úrvalsdeild |
| 2025-07-01 | Valur Reykjavik | 3-1 | Stjarnan | Cup |
| 2025-06-14 | Stjarnan | 3-2 | Valur Reykjavik | Úrvalsdeild |
| 2024-09-23 | Valur Reykjavik | 2-2 | Stjarnan | Úrvalsdeild |
| 2024-05-30 | Valur Reykjavik | 5-1 | Stjarnan | Úrvalsdeild |
| 2024-04-19 | Stjarnan | 1-0 | Valur Reykjavik | Úrvalsdeild |
| 2023-09-17 | Valur Reykjavik | 2-0 | Stjarnan | Úrvalsdeild |
Other Relegation Group - 5 fixtures
Before and after this match
- Stjarnan, previous: Thor Akureyri – Stjarnan, 2026-10-17
- Valur Reykjavik, previous: Valur Reykjavik vs KA Akureyri: odds and pick