KA Akureyri vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar: model vs market
| Source | KA Akureyri | Draw | IBV Vestmannaeyjar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50% | 25% | 25% |
| Market | 60% | 21% | 19% |
| Published | 58% | 22% | 21% |
| Edge | -3% | +1% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.81 vs 1.25.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
KA Akureyri vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar odds movement
Median bookmaker price on KA Akureyri, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| KA Akureyri | 1.75 | 1.53 | -0.22 |
| Draw | 3.95 | 4.40 | +0.45 |
| IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 3.82 | 4.86 | +1.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
KA Akureyri and IBV Vestmannaeyjar expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.06
- Attack rating (KA Akureyri / IBV Vestmannaeyjar)
- 1.00 / 0.70
- Defence rating (KA Akureyri / IBV Vestmannaeyjar)
- 1.13 / 0.89
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
KA Akureyri vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: KA Akureyri goals. Columns: IBV Vestmannaeyjar goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
KA Akureyri vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for KA Akureyri vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | KA Akureyri | 58% | 1.74 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.55 | |
| IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 21% | 4.87 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59% | 1.70 |
| Under 2.5 | 41% | 2.44 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.65 |
| No | 39% | 2.54 | |
| Double chance | 1X (KA Akureyri or draw) | 79% | 1.26 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| X2 (draw or IBV Vestmannaeyjar) | 42% | 2.35 | |
| Handicap -1 | KA Akureyri win by 2+ | 28% | 3.55 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
KA Akureyri and IBV Vestmannaeyjar recent form
KA Akureyri
3W 1D 2L
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
KA Akureyri at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-7
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.58
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 12
- They have won 7 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
IBV Vestmannaeyjar away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-4-8
- Win rate
- 8%
- Goals for / match
- 1.15
- Goals against / match
- 2.08
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 13
- They have won 5 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
League matches this season before kick-off: KA Akureyri at home only, IBV Vestmannaeyjar away only.
KA Akureyri vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: KA Akureyri 6 · draws 3 · IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-19 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 2-2 | KA Akureyri | Úrvalsdeild |
| 2026-05-10 | KA Akureyri | 2-0 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar | Úrvalsdeild |
| 2025-10-25 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 3-4 | KA Akureyri | Úrvalsdeild |
| 2025-08-10 | KA Akureyri | 1-0 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar | Úrvalsdeild |
| 2025-05-18 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 0-0 | KA Akureyri | Úrvalsdeild |
| 2023-09-28 | KA Akureyri | 2-1 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar | Úrvalsdeild |
| 2023-06-28 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 2-0 | KA Akureyri | Úrvalsdeild |
| 2023-04-15 | KA Akureyri | 3-0 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar | Úrvalsdeild |
| 2023-03-18 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 0-0 | KA Akureyri | League Cup |
| 2022-07-09 | KA Akureyri | 4-3 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar | Úrvalsdeild |
Other Relegation Group - 5 fixtures
Before and after this match
- KA Akureyri, previous: Valur Reykjavik vs KA Akureyri: odds and pick
- IBV Vestmannaeyjar, previous: IBV Vestmannaeyjar – FH hafnarfjordur, 2026-10-16