IA Akranes vs Keflavik preview
In the match between IA Akranes and Keflavik, the 1X2 probabilities show IA Akranes at 62% and Keflavik at 19%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with an 8% chance. IA Akranes has a strong expected goals figure of 2.76 compared to Keflavik's 1.56, suggesting a higher scoring potential for the home side.
However, IA Akranes has not won against Keflavik in their last 2 meetings, with Keflavik winning both times. While the model indicates an 80% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 74% likelihood of both teams to score, unexpected performances from either side could alter these outcomes.
IA Akranes vs Keflavik: model vs market
| Source | IA Akranes | Draw | Keflavik |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 66% | 17% | 17% |
| Market | 61% | 20% | 19% |
| Published | 62% | 19% | 19% |
| Edge | +1% | -1% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.93 vs 1.51.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.55, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.7% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
IA Akranes vs Keflavik odds movement
Median bookmaker price on IA Akranes, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| IA Akranes | 1.56 | 1.50 | -0.06 |
| Draw | 4.55 | 4.60 | +0.05 |
| Keflavik | 4.40 | 4.70 | +0.30 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
IA Akranes and Keflavik expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.44
- Attack rating (IA Akranes / Keflavik)
- 1.28 / 0.89
- Defence rating (IA Akranes / Keflavik)
- 1.07 / 1.13
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
IA Akranes vs Keflavik score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: IA Akranes goals. Columns: Keflavik goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
IA Akranes vs Keflavik goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 74%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for IA Akranes vs Keflavik
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | IA Akranes | 62% | 1.61 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.23 | |
| Keflavik | 19% | 5.33 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 82% | 1.22 |
| Under 2.5 | 18% | 5.56 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74% | 1.35 |
| No | 26% | 3.89 | |
| Double chance | 1X (IA Akranes or draw) | 81% | 1.23 |
| 12 (either side) | 81% | 1.24 | |
| X2 (draw or Keflavik) | 38% | 2.64 | |
| Handicap -1 | IA Akranes win by 2+ | 47% | 2.11 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
IA Akranes and Keflavik recent form
IA Akranes
3W 2D 1L
Keflavik
0W 1D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
IA Akranes at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-4-3
- Win rate
- 42%
- Goals for / match
- 1.92
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 12
- They have won 10 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 26 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Keflavik away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-9
- Win rate
- 23%
- Goals for / match
- 1.31
- Goals against / match
- 2.46
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 13
- They have won 8 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 26 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: IA Akranes at home only, Keflavik away only.
IA Akranes vs Keflavik head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: IA Akranes 3 · draws 1 · Keflavik 6.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | Keflavik | 5-2 | IA Akranes | Úrvalsdeild |
| 2026-05-08 | IA Akranes | 1-3 | Keflavik | Úrvalsdeild |
| 2024-05-16 | Keflavik | 3-1 | IA Akranes | Cup |
| 2023-04-19 | Keflavik | 1-0 | IA Akranes | Cup |
| 2022-10-02 | Keflavik | 3-2 | IA Akranes | Úrvalsdeild |
| 2022-08-28 | Keflavik | 0-1 | IA Akranes | Úrvalsdeild |
| 2022-05-29 | IA Akranes | 0-2 | Keflavik | Úrvalsdeild |
| 2021-10-02 | IA Akranes | 2-0 | Keflavik | Cup |
| 2021-09-25 | Keflavik | 2-3 | IA Akranes | Úrvalsdeild |
| 2021-06-28 | IA Akranes | 2-2 | Keflavik | Úrvalsdeild |
Other Championship Group - 5 fixtures
- KR Reykjavik vs Breidablik 2026-10-24
- Vikingur Reykjavik vs Fram Reykjavik 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- IA Akranes, previous: Fram Reykjavik v IA Akranes analysis
- Keflavik, previous: Keflavik v KR Reykjavik analysis