KR Reykjavik vs Breidablik: model vs market
| Source | KR Reykjavik | Draw | Breidablik |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 71% | 15% | 14% |
| Market | 58% | 19% | 24% |
| Published | 61% | 18% | 21% |
| Edge | +3% | -1% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.21 vs 1.48.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices KR Reykjavik below our published probability: +3.3 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
KR Reykjavik vs Breidablik odds movement
Median bookmaker price on KR Reykjavik, 11 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| KR Reykjavik | 1.54 | 1.60 | +0.06 |
| Draw | 5.05 | 4.95 | -0.10 |
| Breidablik | 4.19 | 3.86 | -0.33 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
KR Reykjavik and Breidablik expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.69
- Attack rating (KR Reykjavik / Breidablik)
- 1.45 / 0.90
- Defence rating (KR Reykjavik / Breidablik)
- 1.04 / 1.09
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
KR Reykjavik vs Breidablik score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: KR Reykjavik goals. Columns: Breidablik goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
KR Reykjavik vs Breidablik goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 75%
- No goals (0–0)
- 1%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for KR Reykjavik vs Breidablik
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | KR Reykjavik | 61% | 1.64 |
| Draw | 18% | 5.64 | |
| Breidablik | 21% | 4.67 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 85% | 1.18 |
| Under 2.5 | 15% | 6.51 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 75% | 1.34 |
| No | 25% | 3.93 | |
| Double chance | 1X (KR Reykjavik or draw) | 79% | 1.27 |
| 12 (either side) | 82% | 1.22 | |
| X2 (draw or Breidablik) | 39% | 2.56 | |
| Handicap -1 | KR Reykjavik win by 2+ | 53% | 1.89 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
KR Reykjavik and Breidablik recent form
KR Reykjavik
3W 1D 2L
Breidablik
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
KR Reykjavik at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-3-1
- Win rate
- 69%
- Goals for / match
- 3.62
- Goals against / match
- 1.85
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 13
- They have won 16 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 3.3 goals per match.
- They average 3.6 goals per game at home against 2.9 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Breidablik away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-5-5
- Win rate
- 23%
- Goals for / match
- 1.69
- Goals against / match
- 1.92
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 13
- They have won 10 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 26 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: KR Reykjavik at home only, Breidablik away only.
KR Reykjavik vs Breidablik head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: KR Reykjavik 3 · draws 3 · Breidablik 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | KR Reykjavik | 3-3 | Breidablik | Úrvalsdeild |
| 2026-05-22 | Breidablik | 6-3 | KR Reykjavik | Úrvalsdeild |
| 2025-07-26 | KR Reykjavik | 1-1 | Breidablik | Úrvalsdeild |
| 2025-05-05 | Breidablik | 3-3 | KR Reykjavik | Úrvalsdeild |
| 2024-07-21 | Breidablik | 4-2 | KR Reykjavik | Úrvalsdeild |
| 2024-04-28 | KR Reykjavik | 2-3 | Breidablik | Úrvalsdeild |
| 2023-10-01 | KR Reykjavik | 4-3 | Breidablik | Úrvalsdeild |
| 2023-08-06 | Breidablik | 3-4 | KR Reykjavik | Úrvalsdeild |
| 2023-05-13 | KR Reykjavik | 0-1 | Breidablik | Úrvalsdeild |
| 2022-12-08 | Breidablik | 3-4 | KR Reykjavik | Friendlies Clubs |
Other Championship Group - 5 fixtures
- IA Akranes v Keflavik — match page 2026-10-24
- Vikingur Reykjavik vs Fram Reykjavik 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- KR Reykjavik, previous: Keflavik v KR Reykjavik analysis
- Breidablik, previous: Breidablik vs Vikingur Reykjavik prediction