Updated

Premier Division · Matchday 30

Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians

· Tallaght Stadium, Dublin

Full time2 – 1

Alin prediction was Shamrock Rovers to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

7% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Shamrock RoversDrawBohemians

Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceShamrock RoversDrawBohemians
Model37%22%41%
Market42%27%31%
Published41%26%33%
Edge-1%-1%+3%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Shamrock Rovers, 97 snapshots since 2026-08-24.

Opened 2.25Now 2.20 -0.05
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Shamrock Rovers2.252.20-0.05
Draw3.303.40+0.10
Bohemians3.003.00+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Shamrock Rovers and Bohemians expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.90Shamrock Rovers
2.01Bohemians
Total expected goals
3.91
Attack rating (Shamrock Rovers / Bohemians)
1.20 / 1.47
Defence rating (Shamrock Rovers / Bohemians)
1.17 / 1.10

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.8% 3.3% 4.1% 2.7% 2.2% 1 3.0% 8.4% 7.7% 5.2% 4.1% 2 3.6% 7.3% 7.3% 4.9% 3.9% 3 2.3% 4.6% 4.6% 3.1% 2.5% 4+ 1.7% 3.4% 3.4% 2.3% 1.8%

Rows: Shamrock Rovers goals. Columns: Bohemians goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 91%
Over 2.5 75%
Over 3.5 55%
Both teams to score
74%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Shamrock Rovers41%2.46
Draw26%3.85
Bohemians33%3.00
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.575%1.34
Under 2.525%3.97
Both teams to scoreYes74%1.34
No26%3.91
Double chance1X (Shamrock Rovers or draw)67%1.50
12 (either side)74%1.35
X2 (draw or Bohemians)59%1.68
Handicap -1Shamrock Rovers win by 2+20%5.04
Push (exactly one goal)17%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Shamrock Rovers and Bohemians recent form

Shamrock Rovers 2W 2D 2L
Bohemians 5W 0D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Shamrock Rovers at home

Record (W-D-L)
12-3-1
Win rate
75%
Goals for / match
1.94
Goals against / match
0.88
Clean sheets
6 of 16
  • They have won 18 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 32 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 32 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
  • 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Bohemians away

Record (W-D-L)
10-2-4
Win rate
62%
Goals for / match
1.88
Goals against / match
1.19
Clean sheets
7 of 16
  • They have won 17 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 32 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 32 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
  • They have converted 8 of 9 penalties (89%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Shamrock Rovers at home only, Bohemians away only.

Expected lineups

Shamrock Rovers lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 1 E. McGinty
  2. 5 L. Grace
  3. 4 Pico
  4. 6 D. Cleary
  5. 24 W. Fitzgerald
  6. 29 J. Byrne
  7. 8 M. Healy
  8. 22 T. Sobowale
  9. 10 G. Burke
  10. 7 D. Watts
  11. 88 J. McGovern

Bench: A. Greene, J. Mulraney, J. Afolabi, A. Brennan, L. Steacy, John O'Sullivan, C. O'Sullivan, N. Razi, M. Noonan

Bohemians lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 25 P. Walters
  2. 6 J. Flores
  3. 22 S. Todd
  4. 12 P. Hickey
  5. 16 D. Power
  6. 17 A. McDonnell
  7. 10 D. Devoy
  8. 7 C. Parsons
  9. 26 R. Tierney
  10. 11 D. Rooney
  11. 9 C. Whelan

Bench: K. Chorążka, R. Burke, N. Morahan, S. Diallo, H. Vaughan, D. James-Taylor, Josh Adam, M. Strods, P. Madden

Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Shamrock Rovers 4 · draws 0 · Bohemians 6.

Shamrock RoversDrawsBohemians
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-25Bohemians1-2Shamrock RoversPremier Division
2026-04-17Shamrock Rovers2-1BohemiansPremier Division
2026-02-27Bohemians3-2Shamrock RoversPremier Division
2025-09-26Shamrock Rovers2-1BohemiansPremier Division
2025-06-23Bohemians2-0Shamrock RoversPremier Division
2025-04-21Shamrock Rovers2-3BohemiansPremier Division
2025-02-16Bohemians1-0Shamrock RoversPremier Division
2024-09-23Shamrock Rovers1-0BohemiansPremier Division
2024-09-01Bohemians2-1Shamrock RoversPremier Division
2024-07-19Bohemians1-0Shamrock RoversFAI Cup

Before and after this match