Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians: model vs market
| Source | Shamrock Rovers | Draw | Bohemians |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49% | 21% | 30% |
| Market | 41% | 28% | 32% |
| Published | 43% | 26% | 31% |
| Edge | +8% | -6% | -2% |
- The market prices Shamrock Rovers below the model: +8.4 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Shamrock Rovers, 85 snapshots since 2026-08-24.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shamrock Rovers | 2.25 | 2.19 | -0.06 |
| Draw | 3.30 | 3.42 | +0.12 |
| Bohemians | 3.00 | 3.05 | +0.05 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Shamrock Rovers and Bohemians expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.83
- Attack rating (Shamrock Rovers / Bohemians)
- 1.10 / 1.48
- Defence rating (Shamrock Rovers / Bohemians)
- 1.22 / 1.11
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Shamrock Rovers goals. Columns: Bohemians goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 76%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Shamrock Rovers | 43% | 2.35 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.85 | |
| Bohemians | 31% | 3.18 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 77% | 1.29 |
| Under 2.5 | 23% | 4.42 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 76% | 1.32 |
| No | 24% | 4.10 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Shamrock Rovers or draw) | 69% | 1.46 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Bohemians) | 57% | 1.74 | |
| Handicap -1 | Shamrock Rovers win by 2+ | 16% | 6.20 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Shamrock Rovers and Bohemians recent form
Shamrock Rovers
1W 3D 2L
Bohemians
5W 0D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Shamrock Rovers at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 11-3-1
- Win rate
- 73%
- Goals for / match
- 1.87
- Goals against / match
- 0.87
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 15
- They have won 17 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Bohemians away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 10-2-4
- Win rate
- 62%
- Goals for / match
- 1.88
- Goals against / match
- 1.19
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 16
- They have won 16 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 8 penalties (88%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Shamrock Rovers at home only, Bohemians away only.
Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Shamrock Rovers 3 · draws 0 · Bohemians 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-25 | Bohemians | 1-2 | Shamrock Rovers | Premier Division |
| 2026-04-17 | Shamrock Rovers | 2-1 | Bohemians | Premier Division |
| 2026-02-27 | Bohemians | 3-2 | Shamrock Rovers | Premier Division |
| 2025-09-26 | Shamrock Rovers | 2-1 | Bohemians | Premier Division |
| 2025-06-23 | Bohemians | 2-0 | Shamrock Rovers | Premier Division |
| 2025-04-21 | Shamrock Rovers | 2-3 | Bohemians | Premier Division |
| 2025-02-16 | Bohemians | 1-0 | Shamrock Rovers | Premier Division |