Bohemians vs Waterford preview
In the Premier Division fixture between Bohemians and Waterford, the 1X2 probabilities show Bohemians at 48%, while Waterford stands at 29%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 2-1, which has a 9% chance of occurring. With Bohemians scoring an expected 2.06 goals and Waterford 1.58, there is a strong possibility for Over 2.5 goals, which sits at 70%.
Both teams to score also has a probability of 70%, reflecting their recent attacking form. Bohemians have won their last 5 matches, while Waterford has mixed results with 2 wins in their last 5 games. However, the confidence grade is C, indicating that factors like Waterford's recent improvement could influence the outcome.
Bohemians vs Waterford: model vs market
| Source | Bohemians | Draw | Waterford |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48% | 23% | 29% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 48% | 23% | 29% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.06 vs 1.58.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Bohemians and Waterford expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.64
- Attack rating (Bohemians / Waterford)
- 1.47 / 1.23
- Defence rating (Bohemians / Waterford)
- 1.10 / 0.97
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Bohemians vs Waterford score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Bohemians goals. Columns: Waterford goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Bohemians vs Waterford goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 70%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Bohemians vs Waterford
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bohemians | 48% | 2.08 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.36 | |
| Waterford | 29% | 3.46 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70% | 1.42 |
| Under 2.5 | 30% | 3.38 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70% | 1.43 |
| No | 30% | 3.35 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Bohemians or draw) | 71% | 1.41 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Waterford) | 52% | 1.93 | |
| Handicap -1 | Bohemians win by 2+ | 29% | 3.51 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Bohemians and Waterford recent form
Bohemians
5W 0D 1L
Waterford
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Bohemians at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-6-3
- Win rate
- 44%
- Goals for / match
- 1.69
- Goals against / match
- 1.19
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 16
- They have won 16 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 8 penalties (88%).
Waterford away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-4-9
- Win rate
- 19%
- Goals for / match
- 1.38
- Goals against / match
- 2.19
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 16
- They have won 7 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 32 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 8 penalties (75%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Bohemians at home only, Waterford away only.
Bohemians vs Waterford head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Bohemians 3 · draws 1 · Waterford 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | Waterford | 3-1 | Bohemians | Premier Division |
| 2026-04-06 | Bohemians | 1-1 | Waterford | Premier Division |
| 2026-03-06 | Waterford | 0-1 | Bohemians | Premier Division |
| 2025-09-19 | Bohemians | 2-1 | Waterford | Premier Division |
| 2025-06-20 | Waterford | 2-1 | Bohemians | Premier Division |
| 2025-05-02 | Bohemians | 1-2 | Waterford | Premier Division |
| 2025-03-07 | Waterford | 0-3 | Bohemians | Premier Division |
Other Matchday 34 fixtures
- St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne — team news & stats 2026-10-16
- Drogheda United vs Derry City 2026-10-16
- Galway United v Shamrock Rovers — match page 2026-10-16
Before and after this match
- Bohemians, previous: Shamrock Rovers v Bohemians analysis
- Waterford, previous: Waterford – Galway United, 2026-10-09