Drogheda United vs Derry City preview
Drogheda United face Derry City with a 32% chance of winning compared to Derry City's 42%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 9% probability. Both teams to score has a 63% chance, indicating a strong possibility for goals from both sides.
Drogheda United's recent form shows 2 wins and 4 losses in their last 6 matches, while Derry City has 3 wins and 2 draws in the same period. The expected goals are close, with Drogheda United at 1.53 and Derry City at 1.59. However, the confidence grade is C, suggesting uncertainty in the outcome.
Drogheda United vs Derry City: model vs market
| Source | Drogheda United | Draw | Derry City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36% | 26% | 38% |
| Market | 31% | 27% | 43% |
| Published | 32% | 26% | 42% |
| Edge | +5% | -1% | -4% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.23, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update.
Drogheda United and Derry City expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.11
- Attack rating (Drogheda United / Derry City)
- 0.92 / 1.14
- Defence rating (Drogheda United / Derry City)
- 1.20 / 1.16
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Drogheda United vs Derry City score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Drogheda United goals. Columns: Derry City goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Drogheda United vs Derry City goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Drogheda United vs Derry City
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Drogheda United | 32% | 3.14 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.78 | |
| Derry City | 42% | 2.40 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60% | 1.66 |
| Under 2.5 | 40% | 2.51 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.58 |
| No | 37% | 2.73 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Drogheda United or draw) | 58% | 1.72 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Derry City) | 68% | 1.47 | |
| Handicap -1 | Derry City win by 2+ | 20% | 5.10 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Drogheda United and Derry City recent form
Drogheda United
2W 0D 4L
Derry City
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Drogheda United at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-6-6
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.12
- Goals against / match
- 1.31
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 16
- They have won 8 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 32 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Derry City away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-8-6
- Win rate
- 12%
- Goals for / match
- 1.12
- Goals against / match
- 1.44
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 16
- They have won 9 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 32 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Drogheda United at home only, Derry City away only.
Drogheda United vs Derry City head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Drogheda United 2 · draws 3 · Derry City 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-26 | Derry City | 2-0 | Drogheda United | Premier Division |
| 2026-05-08 | Drogheda United | 1-0 | Derry City | Premier Division |
| 2026-03-20 | Derry City | 2-2 | Drogheda United | Premier Division |
| 2025-09-26 | Drogheda United | 1-1 | Derry City | Premier Division |
| 2025-06-27 | Derry City | 3-0 | Drogheda United | Premier Division |
| 2025-05-16 | Drogheda United | 1-1 | Derry City | Premier Division |
| 2025-04-11 | Derry City | 1-3 | Drogheda United | Premier Division |
Other Matchday 34 fixtures
- Bohemians v Waterford — match page 2026-10-16
- St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne — team news & stats 2026-10-16
- Galway United v Shamrock Rovers — match page 2026-10-16
Before and after this match
- Drogheda United, previous: Shamrock Rovers vs Drogheda United: odds and pick
- Derry City, previous: Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. prediction