Shamrock Rovers vs Drogheda United preview
Shamrock Rovers host Drogheda United with a 61% chance of winning according to the model 1X2 probabilities. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which reflects a competitive match, but the confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty.
Both teams to score stands at 61%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 58%. Shamrock Rovers have scored an expected 1.69 goals, while Drogheda United's expected goals sit at 1.32. Recent form shows Shamrock Rovers with mixed results, while Drogheda United has seen some wins but also losses. This context could affect the match outcome.
Shamrock Rovers vs Drogheda United: model vs market
| Source | Shamrock Rovers | Draw | Drogheda United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45% | 26% | 29% |
| Market | 67% | 21% | 12% |
| Published | 61% | 22% | 16% |
| Edge | -22% | +5% | +16% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.69 vs 1.32.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.42, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Shamrock Rovers vs Drogheda United odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Shamrock Rovers, 28 snapshots since 2026-09-23.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shamrock Rovers | 1.40 | 1.38 | -0.02 |
| Draw | 4.30 | 4.44 | +0.14 |
| Drogheda United | 7.00 | 7.50 | +0.50 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Shamrock Rovers and Drogheda United expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.01
- Attack rating (Shamrock Rovers / Drogheda United)
- 1.10 / 0.93
- Defence rating (Shamrock Rovers / Drogheda United)
- 1.22 / 1.08
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Shamrock Rovers vs Drogheda United score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Shamrock Rovers goals. Columns: Drogheda United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Shamrock Rovers vs Drogheda United goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Shamrock Rovers vs Drogheda United
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Shamrock Rovers | 61% | 1.63 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.52 | |
| Drogheda United | 16% | 6.08 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58% | 1.72 |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 2.38 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.64 |
| No | 39% | 2.56 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Shamrock Rovers or draw) | 84% | 1.20 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| X2 (draw or Drogheda United) | 39% | 2.59 | |
| Handicap -1 | Shamrock Rovers win by 2+ | 25% | 4.08 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Shamrock Rovers and Drogheda United recent form
Shamrock Rovers
1W 3D 2L
Drogheda United
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Shamrock Rovers at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 11-3-1
- Win rate
- 73%
- Goals for / match
- 1.87
- Goals against / match
- 0.87
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 15
- They have won 17 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Drogheda United away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-4-8
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.88
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 16
- They have won 8 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 32 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Shamrock Rovers at home only, Drogheda United away only.
Shamrock Rovers vs Drogheda United head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Shamrock Rovers 6 · draws 4 · Drogheda United 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Drogheda United | 0-0 | Shamrock Rovers | Premier Division |
| 2026-05-04 | Shamrock Rovers | 4-1 | Drogheda United | Premier Division |
| 2026-03-16 | Drogheda United | 0-0 | Shamrock Rovers | Premier Division |
| 2025-09-12 | Drogheda United | 1-1 | Shamrock Rovers | FAI Cup |
| 2025-08-31 | Shamrock Rovers | 2-1 | Drogheda United | Premier Division |
| 2025-06-16 | Drogheda United | 1-2 | Shamrock Rovers | Premier Division |
| 2025-05-09 | Shamrock Rovers | 3-0 | Drogheda United | Premier Division |
| 2025-03-14 | Drogheda United | 1-2 | Shamrock Rovers | Premier Division |
| 2024-10-18 | Drogheda United | 0-1 | Shamrock Rovers | Premier Division |
| 2024-08-11 | Shamrock Rovers | 1-1 | Drogheda United | Premier Division |
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