Updated

Premier Division · Matchday 33

Shamrock Rovers vs Drogheda United

· Tallaght Stadium, Dublin

Full time3 – 1

Alin prediction was Shamrock Rovers to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Shamrock RoversDrawDrogheda United

Shamrock Rovers vs Drogheda United: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceShamrock RoversDrawDrogheda United
Model45%26%29%
Market68%20%12%
Published62%22%16%
Edge-6%+1%+4%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.69 vs 1.32.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Shamrock Rovers vs Drogheda United odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Shamrock Rovers, 32 snapshots since 2026-09-23.

Opened 1.40Now 1.36 -0.04
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Shamrock Rovers1.401.36-0.04
Draw4.304.60+0.30
Drogheda United7.007.50+0.50

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Shamrock Rovers and Drogheda United expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.69Shamrock Rovers
1.32Drogheda United
Total expected goals
3.01
Attack rating (Shamrock Rovers / Drogheda United)
1.10 / 0.93
Defence rating (Shamrock Rovers / Drogheda United)
1.22 / 1.08

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Shamrock Rovers vs Drogheda United score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.0% 5.4% 4.3% 1.9% 0.8% 1 7.2% 12.1% 7.2% 3.2% 1.4% 2 7.1% 9.3% 6.1% 2.7% 1.2% 3 4.0% 5.3% 3.5% 1.5% 0.7% 4+ 2.5% 3.3% 2.1% 0.9% 0.4%

Rows: Shamrock Rovers goals. Columns: Drogheda United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Shamrock Rovers vs Drogheda United goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 81%
Over 2.5 58%
Over 3.5 36%
Both teams to score
61%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Shamrock Rovers vs Drogheda United

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Shamrock Rovers62%1.61
Draw22%4.65
Drogheda United16%6.10
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.558%1.72
Under 2.542%2.38
Both teams to scoreYes61%1.64
No39%2.56
Double chance1X (Shamrock Rovers or draw)84%1.20
12 (either side)78%1.27
X2 (draw or Drogheda United)38%2.64
Handicap -1Shamrock Rovers win by 2+25%4.08
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Shamrock Rovers and Drogheda United recent form

Shamrock Rovers 1W 3D 2L
Drogheda United 2W 1D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Shamrock Rovers at home

Record (W-D-L)
11-3-1
Win rate
73%
Goals for / match
1.87
Goals against / match
0.87
Clean sheets
6 of 15
  • They have won 17 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 31 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Drogheda United away

Record (W-D-L)
4-4-8
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.25
Goals against / match
1.88
Clean sheets
2 of 16
  • They have won 8 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 9 clean sheets in 32 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 32 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Shamrock Rovers at home only, Drogheda United away only.

Expected lineups

Shamrock Rovers lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 1 E. McGinty
  2. 5 L. Grace
  3. 4 Pico
  4. 6 D. Cleary
  5. 22 T. Sobowale
  6. 29 J. Byrne
  7. 8 M. Healy
  8. 11 J. Mulraney
  9. 10 G. Burke
  10. 7 D. Watts
  11. 88 J. McGovern

Bench: A. Greene, J. Afolabi, A. Brennan, W. Fitzgerald, L. Steacy, John O'Sullivan, C. O'Sullivan, N. Razi, M. Noonan

Drogheda United lineup · 3-5-2

  1. 44 Fynn Michael Cordell Talley
  2. 4 A. Quinn
  3. 22 C. Keeley
  4. 5 Leo Burney
  5. 3 C. Kane
  6. 8 Ethan O'Brien
  7. 10 B. Kavanagh
  8. 17 S. Farrell
  9. 2 E. Agbaje
  10. 24 W. Davis
  11. 25 R. Markey

Bench: J. Godden, T. Oluwa, M. Doyle, J. Bolger, J. Brennan, K. Cruise, D. Mare, S. McGrath

Shamrock Rovers vs Drogheda United head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Shamrock Rovers 6 · draws 4 · Drogheda United 0.

Shamrock RoversDrawsDrogheda United
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-07-31Drogheda United0-0Shamrock RoversPremier Division
2026-05-04Shamrock Rovers4-1Drogheda UnitedPremier Division
2026-03-16Drogheda United0-0Shamrock RoversPremier Division
2025-09-12Drogheda United1-1Shamrock RoversFAI Cup
2025-08-31Shamrock Rovers2-1Drogheda UnitedPremier Division
2025-06-16Drogheda United1-2Shamrock RoversPremier Division
2025-05-09Shamrock Rovers3-0Drogheda UnitedPremier Division
2025-03-14Drogheda United1-2Shamrock RoversPremier Division
2024-10-18Drogheda United0-1Shamrock RoversPremier Division
2024-08-11Shamrock Rovers1-1Drogheda UnitedPremier Division

Other Matchday 33 fixtures

Before and after this match