Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. preview
Derry City hosts St Patrick's Athl. with the model showing a 43% chance for an away win. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which aligns with expected goals of 0.93 for Derry City and 1.57 for St Patrick's Athl. Both teams to score has a probability of 49%, while Over 2.5 goals sits at 46%.
Derry City has a recent form of W-D-W-D-L-W, while St Patrick's Athl. comes in strong with W-W-W-L-W-W. The head-to-head record shows Derry City with 2 wins, St Patrick's Athl. with 1 win, and 4 draws in their last 7 encounters. A draw or a higher-scoring game could challenge the expected outcome. The confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl.: model vs market
| Source | Derry City | Draw | St Patrick's Athl. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 21% | 28% | 51% |
| Market | 32% | 28% | 40% |
| Published | 29% | 28% | 43% |
| Edge | -10% | 0% | +11% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.57 vs 0.93.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices St Patrick's Athl. below the model: +10.6 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.31, recorded — the top price across the 4 books we record, each at its own last update.
Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. odds movement
Median bookmaker price on St Patrick's Athl., 8 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Derry City | 3.00 | 2.94 | -0.06 |
| Draw | 3.53 | 3.32 | -0.21 |
| St Patrick's Athl. | 2.30 | 2.30 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Derry City and St Patrick's Athl. expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.51
- Attack rating (Derry City / St Patrick's Athl.)
- 1.14 / 1.16
- Defence rating (Derry City / St Patrick's Athl.)
- 1.16 / 0.57
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Derry City goals. Columns: St Patrick's Athl. goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 49%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl.
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Derry City | 29% | 3.45 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.58 | |
| St Patrick's Athl. | 43% | 2.32 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46% | 2.18 |
| Under 2.5 | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49% | 2.03 |
| No | 51% | 1.97 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Derry City or draw) | 57% | 1.76 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or St Patrick's Athl.) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| Handicap -1 | St Patrick's Athl. win by 2+ | 27% | 3.65 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Derry City and St Patrick's Athl. recent form
Derry City
3W 2D 1L
St Patrick's Athl.
5W 0D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Derry City at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-6-3
- Win rate
- 44%
- Goals for / match
- 1.69
- Goals against / match
- 1.19
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 16
- They have won 8 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
St Patrick's Athl. away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-5-4
- Win rate
- 44%
- Goals for / match
- 1.31
- Goals against / match
- 0.94
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 16
- They have won 16 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Derry City at home only, St Patrick's Athl. away only.
Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Derry City 2 · draws 4 · St Patrick's Athl. 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | St Patrick's Athl. | 1-1 | Derry City | Premier Division |
| 2026-05-22 | Derry City | 0-0 | St Patrick's Athl. | Premier Division |
| 2026-03-16 | St Patrick's Athl. | 0-0 | Derry City | Premier Division |
| 2025-08-29 | Derry City | 2-2 | St Patrick's Athl. | Premier Division |
| 2025-06-23 | St Patrick's Athl. | 0-1 | Derry City | Premier Division |
| 2025-05-05 | Derry City | 1-0 | St Patrick's Athl. | Premier Division |
| 2025-03-03 | St Patrick's Athl. | 2-0 | Derry City | Premier Division |
Other Matchday 33 fixtures
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