Updated

Premier Division · Matchday 33

Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl.

· Brandywell Stadium, Delhi· Referee Aaron O'Dowd

Full time1 – 0

Alin prediction was St Patrick's Athl. to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 0 – 1

11% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Derry CityDrawSt Patrick's Athl.

Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl.: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceDerry CityDrawSt Patrick's Athl.
Model24%28%49%
Market28%28%44%
Published27%28%45%
Edge-1%0%+1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.56 vs 1.02.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. odds movement

Median bookmaker price on St Patrick's Athl., 30 snapshots since 2026-10-03.

Opened 2.30Now 2.10 -0.20
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Derry City3.003.33+0.32
Draw3.533.28-0.25
St Patrick's Athl.2.302.10-0.20

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Derry City and St Patrick's Athl. expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.02Derry City
1.56St Patrick's Athl.
Total expected goals
2.58
Attack rating (Derry City / St Patrick's Athl.)
1.03 / 1.14
Defence rating (Derry City / St Patrick's Athl.)
1.18 / 0.68

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.8% 10.6% 9.2% 4.8% 2.6% 1 6.6% 13.3% 9.4% 4.9% 2.7% 2 4.0% 6.2% 4.8% 2.5% 1.4% 3 1.4% 2.1% 1.6% 0.9% 0.5% 4+ 0.4% 0.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: Derry City goals. Columns: St Patrick's Athl. goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%
Over 1.5 74%
Over 2.5 48%
Over 3.5 26%
Both teams to score
52%
No goals (0–0)
9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl.

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Derry City27%3.74
Draw28%3.56
St Patrick's Athl.45%2.21
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.548%2.09
Under 2.552%1.91
Both teams to scoreYes52%1.93
No48%2.08
Double chance1X (Derry City or draw)55%1.82
12 (either side)72%1.39
X2 (draw or St Patrick's Athl.)73%1.37
Handicap -1St Patrick's Athl. win by 2+26%3.90
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Derry City and St Patrick's Athl. recent form

Derry City 2W 2D 2L
St Patrick's Athl. 4W 0D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Derry City at home

Record (W-D-L)
7-6-3
Win rate
44%
Goals for / match
1.69
Goals against / match
1.19
Clean sheets
6 of 16
  • They have won 9 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
  • They have kept 9 clean sheets in 33 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 33 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).

St Patrick's Athl. away

Record (W-D-L)
7-5-4
Win rate
44%
Goals for / match
1.31
Goals against / match
0.94
Clean sheets
6 of 16
  • They have won 17 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
  • They have kept 13 clean sheets in 33 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 10 of 33 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Derry City at home only, St Patrick's Athl. away only.

Expected lineups

Derry City lineup · 4-1-4-1

  1. 13 Tom Norcott
  2. 19 B. Fleming
  3. 3 Patrick McClean
  4. 4 J. Stott
  5. 24 Brooklyn Lyons-Foster
  6. 17 N. Twisk
  7. 21 Kévin Santos
  8. 14 E. Chapman
  9. 15 J. Clarke
  10. 12 D. Burns
  11. 29 T. Smith

Bench: B. Maher, D. Markey, G. Whyte, C. Barr, C. Dummigan, Christy Grogan, T. Doherty, C. O'Donnell, L. Kelly

St Patrick's Athl. lineup · 3-1-4-2

  1. 94 J. Anang
  2. 24 L. Turner
  3. 2 S. Hoare
  4. 4 J. Redmond
  5. 6 J. Lennon
  6. 3 A. Breslin
  7. 19 B. Baggley
  8. 10 K. Leavy
  9. 7 Z. Elbouzedi
  10. 9 A. Keena
  11. 21 A. Olusanya

Bench: D. Rogers, C. Forrester, J. McClelland, D. Nugent, R. Palmer, J. Brown, R. Edmondson, S. McHale, R. Sheridan

Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Derry City 4 · draws 4 · St Patrick's Athl. 2.

Derry CityDrawsSt Patrick's Athl.
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-08-02St Patrick's Athl.1-1Derry CityPremier Division
2026-05-22Derry City0-0St Patrick's Athl.Premier Division
2026-03-16St Patrick's Athl.0-0Derry CityPremier Division
2025-08-29Derry City2-2St Patrick's Athl.Premier Division
2025-06-23St Patrick's Athl.0-1Derry CityPremier Division
2025-05-05Derry City1-0St Patrick's Athl.Premier Division
2025-03-03St Patrick's Athl.2-0Derry CityPremier Division
2024-10-25St Patrick's Athl.1-0Derry CityPremier Division
2024-07-21Derry City3-0St Patrick's Athl.FAI Cup
2024-05-17St Patrick's Athl.0-1Derry CityPremier Division

Other Matchday 33 fixtures

Before and after this match