St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne preview
In the Premier Division match on 2026-10-16, St Patrick's Athl. has a 60% chance to win against Shelbourne, who has a 17% chance. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with expected goals of 1.80 for St Patrick's Athl. and 0.85 for Shelbourne.
Both teams to score stands at 49%, while Over 2.5 goals is also at 49%. St Patrick's Athl. has shown strong recent form with 4 wins in their last 6 matches, while Shelbourne has mixed results with 2 wins and 2 draws in their last 6. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the outcome.
St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne: model vs market
| Source | St Patrick's Athl. | Draw | Shelbourne |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59% | 25% | 16% |
| Market | 60% | 23% | 17% |
| Published | 60% | 23% | 17% |
| Edge | -1% | +2% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.80 vs 0.85.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.57, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update.
St Patrick's Athl. and Shelbourne expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.64
- Attack rating (St Patrick's Athl. / Shelbourne)
- 1.16 / 1.27
- Defence rating (St Patrick's Athl. / Shelbourne)
- 0.57 / 1.08
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: St Patrick's Athl. goals. Columns: Shelbourne goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 49%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | St Patrick's Athl. | 60% | 1.68 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.30 | |
| Shelbourne | 17% | 5.86 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49% | 2.03 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 1.97 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49% | 2.06 |
| No | 51% | 1.95 | |
| Double chance | 1X (St Patrick's Athl. or draw) | 83% | 1.21 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Shelbourne) | 40% | 2.48 | |
| Handicap -1 | St Patrick's Athl. win by 2+ | 35% | 2.89 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
St Patrick's Athl. and Shelbourne recent form
St Patrick's Athl.
5W 0D 1L
Shelbourne
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
St Patrick's Athl. at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 10-3-3
- Win rate
- 62%
- Goals for / match
- 1.94
- Goals against / match
- 0.62
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 16
- They have won 17 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
Shelbourne away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-8-2
- Win rate
- 38%
- Goals for / match
- 1.38
- Goals against / match
- 1.12
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 16
- They have won 9 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 32 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: St Patrick's Athl. at home only, Shelbourne away only.
St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: St Patrick's Athl. 2 · draws 2 · Shelbourne 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | Shelbourne | 1-2 | St Patrick's Athl. | Premier Division |
| 2026-05-15 | St Patrick's Athl. | 0-1 | Shelbourne | Premier Division |
| 2026-03-06 | Shelbourne | 2-3 | St Patrick's Athl. | Premier Division |
| 2025-11-01 | Shelbourne | 0-0 | St Patrick's Athl. | Premier Division |
| 2025-06-16 | St Patrick's Athl. | 0-1 | Shelbourne | Premier Division |
| 2025-05-09 | Shelbourne | 2-1 | St Patrick's Athl. | Premier Division |
| 2025-04-04 | St Patrick's Athl. | 0-0 | Shelbourne | Premier Division |
Other Matchday 34 fixtures
- Bohemians v Waterford — match page 2026-10-16
- Drogheda United vs Derry City 2026-10-16
- Galway United v Shamrock Rovers — match page 2026-10-16
Before and after this match
- St Patrick's Athl., previous: Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. prediction
- Shelbourne, previous: Shelbourne v Sligo Rovers analysis