Shelbourne vs Sligo Rovers preview
In the Premier Division fixture, Shelbourne faces Sligo Rovers with a 67% probability of winning according to the model 1X2. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.96 for Shelbourne and 0.82 for Sligo Rovers. The market suggests a decent chance for Over 2.5 goals at 53%, while both teams to score stands at 49%.
However, recent form could influence the outcome. Shelbourne has drawn twice and lost twice in their last five matches, while Sligo Rovers has lost four in a row. With Sligo Rovers struggling, their chances of a surprise win remain low, but any improvement in their performance could affect the predictions.
Shelbourne vs Sligo Rovers: model vs market
| Source | Shelbourne | Draw | Sligo Rovers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 63% | 23% | 14% |
| Market | 68% | 20% | 12% |
| Published | 67% | 21% | 13% |
| Edge | -5% | +3% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.96 vs 0.82.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.39, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Shelbourne vs Sligo Rovers odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Shelbourne, 28 snapshots since 2026-09-23.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shelbourne | 1.38 | 1.36 | -0.02 |
| Draw | 4.33 | 4.60 | +0.27 |
| Sligo Rovers | 8.00 | 7.50 | -0.50 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Shelbourne and Sligo Rovers expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.78
- Attack rating (Shelbourne / Sligo Rovers)
- 0.98 / 0.62
- Defence rating (Shelbourne / Sligo Rovers)
- 1.14 / 1.39
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Shelbourne vs Sligo Rovers score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Shelbourne goals. Columns: Sligo Rovers goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Shelbourne vs Sligo Rovers goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 49%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Shelbourne vs Sligo Rovers
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Shelbourne | 67% | 1.50 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.81 | |
| Sligo Rovers | 13% | 7.87 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53% | 1.90 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 2.11 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49% | 2.04 |
| No | 51% | 1.97 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Shelbourne or draw) | 87% | 1.15 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.26 | |
| X2 (draw or Sligo Rovers) | 33% | 2.99 | |
| Handicap -1 | Shelbourne win by 2+ | 39% | 2.56 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Shelbourne and Sligo Rovers recent form
Shelbourne
1W 3D 2L
Sligo Rovers
0W 1D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Shelbourne at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-5-8
- Win rate
- 19%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.69
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 16
- They have won 9 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sligo Rovers away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-11
- Win rate
- 12%
- Goals for / match
- 0.56
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 16
- They have won 5 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 15 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Shelbourne at home only, Sligo Rovers away only.
Shelbourne vs Sligo Rovers head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Shelbourne 5 · draws 2 · Sligo Rovers 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-27 | Sligo Rovers | 2-2 | Shelbourne | Premier Division |
| 2026-05-08 | Shelbourne | 0-0 | Sligo Rovers | Premier Division |
| 2026-03-21 | Sligo Rovers | 0-1 | Shelbourne | Premier Division |
| 2025-10-17 | Shelbourne | 3-1 | Sligo Rovers | Premier Division |
| 2025-08-02 | Sligo Rovers | 0-2 | Shelbourne | Premier Division |
| 2025-05-23 | Shelbourne | 3-2 | Sligo Rovers | Premier Division |
| 2025-03-28 | Sligo Rovers | 1-2 | Shelbourne | Premier Division |
Other Matchday 33 fixtures
- Dundalk vs Bohemians — team news & stats 2026-10-02
- Shamrock Rovers vs Drogheda United 2026-10-08
- Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. 2026-10-09
- Waterford v Galway United — match page 2026-10-09