Updated

Premier Division · Matchday 33

Shelbourne vs Sligo Rovers

· Tolka Park, Dublin· Referee P. McLaughlin

Full time5 – 1

Alin prediction was Shelbourne to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 0

12% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
ShelbourneDrawSligo Rovers

Shelbourne vs Sligo Rovers: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceShelbourneDrawSligo Rovers
Model63%23%14%
Market73%17%10%
Published70%18%11%
Edge-2%+2%+1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.96 vs 0.82.
  • Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Shelbourne vs Sligo Rovers odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Shelbourne, 34 snapshots since 2026-09-23.

Opened 1.38Now 1.27 -0.10
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Shelbourne1.381.27-0.10
Draw4.335.55+1.22
Sligo Rovers8.009.00+1.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Shelbourne and Sligo Rovers expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.96Shelbourne
0.82Sligo Rovers
Total expected goals
2.78
Attack rating (Shelbourne / Sligo Rovers)
0.98 / 0.62
Defence rating (Shelbourne / Sligo Rovers)
1.14 / 1.39

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Shelbourne vs Sligo Rovers score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.2% 4.1% 2.1% 0.6% 0.1% 1 11.2% 11.0% 4.1% 1.1% 0.3% 2 11.9% 9.8% 4.0% 1.1% 0.3% 3 7.8% 6.4% 2.6% 0.7% 0.2% 4+ 6.0% 4.9% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1%

Rows: Shelbourne goals. Columns: Sligo Rovers goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Shelbourne vs Sligo Rovers goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 78%
Over 2.5 53%
Over 3.5 30%
Both teams to score
49%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Shelbourne vs Sligo Rovers

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Shelbourne70%1.42
Draw18%5.46
Sligo Rovers11%8.90
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.553%1.90
Under 2.547%2.11
Both teams to scoreYes49%2.04
No51%1.96
Double chance1X (Shelbourne or draw)89%1.13
12 (either side)82%1.22
X2 (draw or Sligo Rovers)30%3.38
Handicap -1Shelbourne win by 2+39%2.56
Push (exactly one goal)24%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Shelbourne and Sligo Rovers recent form

Shelbourne 1W 3D 2L
Sligo Rovers 0W 1D 5L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Shelbourne at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-5-8
Win rate
19%
Goals for / match
1.25
Goals against / match
1.69
Clean sheets
2 of 16
  • They have won 9 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 32 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 32 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
  • 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Sligo Rovers away

Record (W-D-L)
2-3-11
Win rate
12%
Goals for / match
0.56
Goals against / match
1.75
Clean sheets
2 of 16
  • They have won 5 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 32 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 16 of 32 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Shelbourne at home only, Sligo Rovers away only.

Expected lineups

Shelbourne lineup · 3-4-3

  1. 19 E. Beach
  2. 4 K. Ledwidge
  3. 17 D. Kelly
  4. 16 O. Casey
  5. 18 James Barry Norris
  6. 23 K. McInroy
  7. 21 Jack Henry-Francis
  8. 25 M. Mbeng
  9. 27 E. Caffrey
  10. 11 M. Odubeko
  11. 22 S. Moore

Bench: S. Boyd, J. Martin, A. Coote, S. Bone, M. Untergrabner, C. Walsh, W. Jarvis, Daniel Ring, James Roche

Sligo Rovers lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Liam John Hughes
  2. 3 Sean Stewart
  3. 16 C. McHugh
  4. 52 G. McElroy
  5. 51 Aidan Gabbidon
  6. 6 L. Young
  7. 7 J. Shorrock
  8. 10 A. Meekison
  9. 14 J. McManus
  10. 41 K. Woolery

Bench: S. Quirk, L. Pearce, C. Kavanagh, O. Denham, Conor Cannon, D. Patton, Kevin Zefi

Shelbourne vs Sligo Rovers head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Shelbourne 5 · draws 3 · Sligo Rovers 2.

ShelbourneDrawsSligo Rovers
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-06-27Sligo Rovers2-2ShelbournePremier Division
2026-05-08Shelbourne0-0Sligo RoversPremier Division
2026-03-21Sligo Rovers0-1ShelbournePremier Division
2025-10-17Shelbourne3-1Sligo RoversPremier Division
2025-08-02Sligo Rovers0-2ShelbournePremier Division
2025-05-23Shelbourne3-2Sligo RoversPremier Division
2025-03-28Sligo Rovers1-2ShelbournePremier Division
2024-09-27Shelbourne0-0Sligo RoversPremier Division
2024-08-10Sligo Rovers2-1ShelbournePremier Division
2024-05-31Shelbourne1-2Sligo RoversPremier Division

Other Matchday 33 fixtures

Before and after this match