Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk preview
Sligo Rovers face Dundalk with a 23% chance of winning for Sligo and a 53% chance for Dundalk. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which aligns with expected goals of 1.31 for Sligo and 1.93 for Dundalk. With both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals both at 63%, there is potential for a high-scoring match.
Sligo Rovers are struggling, with a recent form of L-L-L-L-L-D, while Dundalk has L-L-L-D-W-L. The head-to-head record shows parity, with 4 wins each and 2 draws in the last 10 encounters. However, Sligo's poor form could lead to a different outcome than expected.
Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk: model vs market
| Source | Sligo Rovers | Draw | Dundalk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25% | 24% | 51% |
| Market | 23% | 23% | 54% |
| Published | 23% | 23% | 53% |
| Edge | +2% | +1% | -3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 1.31.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.77, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Dundalk, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sligo Rovers | 4.13 | 4.11 | -0.03 |
| Draw | 4.07 | 3.98 | -0.09 |
| Dundalk | 1.72 | 1.71 | -0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Sligo Rovers and Dundalk expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.24
- Attack rating (Sligo Rovers / Dundalk)
- 0.62 / 1.03
- Defence rating (Sligo Rovers / Dundalk)
- 1.62 / 1.45
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sligo Rovers goals. Columns: Dundalk goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sligo Rovers | 23% | 4.32 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.26 | |
| Dundalk | 53% | 1.87 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63% | 1.59 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 2.68 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.58 |
| No | 37% | 2.73 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sligo Rovers or draw) | 47% | 2.14 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Dundalk) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| Handicap -1 | Dundalk win by 2+ | 30% | 3.35 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Sligo Rovers and Dundalk recent form
Sligo Rovers
0W 1D 5L
Dundalk
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sligo Rovers at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-5-8
- Win rate
- 19%
- Goals for / match
- 0.94
- Goals against / match
- 1.62
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 16
- They have won 5 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 16 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Dundalk away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-8-4
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 16
- They have won 10 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Sligo Rovers at home only, Dundalk away only.
Expected lineups
Sligo Rovers lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 1 Liam John Hughes
- 3 Sean Stewart
- 52 G. McElroy
- 15 O. Denham
- 51 Aidan Gabbidon
- 71 D. Patton
- 6 L. Young
- 7 J. Shorrock
- 10 A. Meekison
- 41 K. Woolery
- 11 C. Kavanagh
Bench: S. Quirk, L. Pearce, J. McManus, K. McDonagh, Conor Cannon, Kevin Zefi
Dundalk lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 1 E. Minogue
- 22 T. Wilson
- 44 T. Grivosti
- 4 M. Animasahun
- 3 B. Burns
- 6 A. Dervin
- 18 K. Buckley
- 7 D. Horgan
- 11 R. Teahan
- 15 T. Clarke
- 9 C. Dillon
Bench: H. Warren, H. Groome, Leonardo Gaxha, L. Mulligan, Norman Garbett, E. Vassenin, S. Tracey, S. Safaei, D. McDaid
Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Sligo Rovers 4 · draws 2 · Dundalk 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Dundalk | 1-1 | Sligo Rovers | Premier Division |
| 2026-04-25 | Sligo Rovers | 2-0 | Dundalk | Premier Division |
| 2026-03-16 | Dundalk | 1-0 | Sligo Rovers | Premier Division |
| 2025-07-18 | Dundalk | 0-2 | Sligo Rovers | FAI Cup |
| 2024-09-21 | Sligo Rovers | 2-1 | Dundalk | Premier Division |
| 2024-06-13 | Dundalk | 1-0 | Sligo Rovers | Premier Division |
| 2024-04-19 | Sligo Rovers | 1-1 | Dundalk | Premier Division |
| 2024-03-04 | Dundalk | 0-5 | Sligo Rovers | Premier Division |
| 2023-10-20 | Sligo Rovers | 0-2 | Dundalk | Premier Division |
| 2023-08-11 | Dundalk | 1-0 | Sligo Rovers | Premier Division |
Other Matchday 34 fixtures
- Bohemians v Waterford — match page 2026-10-16
- Drogheda United vs Derry City 2026-10-16
- Galway United v Shamrock Rovers — match page 2026-10-16
- St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne — team news & stats 2026-10-16
Before and after this match
- Sligo Rovers, previous: Shelbourne v Sligo Rovers analysis
- Sligo Rovers, next: Shamrock Rovers – Sligo Rovers, 2026-10-23
- Dundalk, next: Derry City – Dundalk, 2026-10-23