Derry City vs Dundalk preview
Derry City faces Dundalk with a 54% chance of winning, while Dundalk has a 24% probability. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with Derry City's expected goals of 2.17 compared to Dundalk's 1.40. Both teams to score has a 68% likelihood, and there is a 69% chance of Over 2.5 goals.
Derry City's recent form shows 2 wins in their last 5 matches, while Dundalk has struggled with 1 win in the same number of games. The head-to-head record indicates Derry City has not won against Dundalk in their last 3 encounters, with 2 draws and 1 win for Dundalk. This context could influence the outcome, as Derry City looks to improve their performance against a team they have struggled against.
Derry City vs Dundalk: model vs market
| Source | Derry City | Draw | Dundalk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54% | 22% | 24% |
| Market | 54% | 24% | 22% |
| Published | 54% | 23% | 23% |
| Edge | 0% | -2% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.17 vs 1.40.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.73, recorded — the top price across the 1 books we record, each at its own last update.
Derry City and Dundalk expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.58
- Attack rating (Derry City / Dundalk)
- 1.03 / 1.03
- Defence rating (Derry City / Dundalk)
- 1.18 / 1.45
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Derry City vs Dundalk score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Derry City goals. Columns: Dundalk goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Derry City vs Dundalk goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 68%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Derry City vs Dundalk
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Derry City | 54% | 1.85 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.26 | |
| Dundalk | 23% | 4.42 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 | 31% | 3.26 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68% | 1.48 |
| No | 32% | 3.10 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Derry City or draw) | 77% | 1.29 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Dundalk) | 46% | 2.17 | |
| Handicap -1 | Derry City win by 2+ | 34% | 2.98 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Derry City and Dundalk recent form
Derry City
2W 2D 2L
Dundalk
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Derry City at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-6-3
- Win rate
- 44%
- Goals for / match
- 1.69
- Goals against / match
- 1.19
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 16
- They have won 9 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 32 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
Dundalk away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-8-4
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 16
- They have won 10 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Derry City at home only, Dundalk away only.
Derry City vs Dundalk head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Derry City 0 · draws 2 · Dundalk 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | Dundalk | 2-1 | Derry City | Premier Division |
| 2026-04-10 | Dundalk | 2-2 | Derry City | Premier Division |
| 2026-02-13 | Derry City | 2-2 | Dundalk | Premier Division |
Other Matchday 35 fixtures
- Bohemians v Shelbourne — match page 2026-10-23
- Waterford vs Drogheda United — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- Galway United vs St Patrick's Athl. 2026-10-23
- Shamrock Rovers v Sligo Rovers — match page 2026-10-23
Before and after this match
- Derry City, previous: Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. prediction
- Dundalk, previous: Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk prediction