Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers preview
In the Premier Division match between Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers, the 1X2 probabilities show Shamrock Rovers at 47%, Dundalk at 28%, and a draw at 25%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 9% chance according to our model.
Both teams to score stands at 69%, and Over 2.5 goals is also at 69%. Dundalk's expected goals are 1.48, while Shamrock Rovers have a higher expected goals of 2.09. Recent form shows Dundalk struggling with four losses in their last five matches, while Shamrock Rovers have won four of their last five. This could affect the outcome if Dundalk improves their performance.
Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers: model vs market
| Source | Dundalk | Draw | Shamrock Rovers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26% | 23% | 51% |
| Market | 28% | 27% | 45% |
| Published | 28% | 26% | 47% |
| Edge | 0% | -1% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.09 vs 1.48.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.07, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Shamrock Rovers, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-24.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dundalk | 3.27 | 3.30 | +0.02 |
| Draw | 3.54 | 3.50 | -0.04 |
| Shamrock Rovers | 2.05 | 2.05 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.58
- Attack rating (Dundalk / Shamrock Rovers)
- 0.98 / 1.28
- Defence rating (Dundalk / Shamrock Rovers)
- 1.42 / 1.05
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Dundalk goals. Columns: Shamrock Rovers goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 69%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Dundalk | 28% | 3.61 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.91 | |
| Shamrock Rovers | 47% | 2.14 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 | 31% | 3.26 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69% | 1.46 |
| No | 31% | 3.19 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Dundalk or draw) | 53% | 1.88 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Shamrock Rovers) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| Handicap -1 | Shamrock Rovers win by 2+ | 31% | 3.26 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers recent form
Dundalk
0W 2D 4L
Shamrock Rovers
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Dundalk at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-3-8
- Win rate
- 35%
- Goals for / match
- 1.53
- Goals against / match
- 1.59
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 17
- They have won 10 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 34 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
Shamrock Rovers away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-5-6
- Win rate
- 35%
- Goals for / match
- 1.24
- Goals against / match
- 1.18
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 17
- They have won 19 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 34 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Dundalk at home only, Shamrock Rovers away only.
Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Dundalk 1 · draws 1 · Shamrock Rovers 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | Shamrock Rovers | 3-2 | Dundalk | Premier Division |
| 2026-05-15 | Dundalk | 1-0 | Shamrock Rovers | Premier Division |
| 2026-02-23 | Shamrock Rovers | 1-1 | Dundalk | Premier Division |
Other Matchday 36 fixtures
- Sligo Rovers vs Derry City 2026-10-30
- St Patrick's Athl. v Bohemians — match page 2026-10-30
- Drogheda United vs Galway United — team news & stats 2026-10-30
- Shelbourne vs Waterford 2026-10-30
Before and after this match
- Dundalk, previous: Derry City – Dundalk, 2026-10-23
- Shamrock Rovers, previous: Shamrock Rovers – Sligo Rovers, 2026-10-23