Updated

Premier Division · Matchday 36

St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians

· Richmond Park, Dublin

Alin prediction St Patrick's Athl. to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 1 – 0

12% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
St Patrick's Athl.DrawBohemians
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.54 vs 0.94.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — St Patrick's Athl. is the favourite, not a value bet.
Best market odds
St Patrick's Athl.2.12 Draw3.52 Bohemians3.44

Price as of

Expected return at 2.12: -2.2% per unit staked

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 7 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians preview

In the fixture between St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians, the 1X2 probabilities show St Patrick's Athl. at 46%, while Bohemians sit at 26%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which has a 12% probability. St Patrick's Athl. has an expected goals figure of 1.54 compared to Bohemians' 0.94, suggesting a stronger attacking performance.

However, both teams to score stands at 49%, indicating a close contest where either team could find the net. Recent form also highlights the competitiveness, with St Patrick's Athl. showing D-L-L-W-W-W and Bohemians at L-W-L-W-W-W. This could lead to unexpected results, making the match difficult to predict.

St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceSt Patrick's Athl.DrawBohemians
Model50%28%22%
Market45%27%28%
Published46%27%27%
Edge+1%0%-2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.54 vs 0.94.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.12, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians odds movement

Median bookmaker price on St Patrick's Athl., 6 snapshots since 2026-10-24.

Opened 2.06Now 2.07 +0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
St Patrick's Athl.2.062.07+0.00
Draw3.443.42-0.02
Bohemians3.333.30-0.03

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.54St Patrick's Athl.
0.94Bohemians
Total expected goals
2.48
Attack rating (St Patrick's Athl. / Bohemians)
0.94 / 1.25
Defence rating (St Patrick's Athl. / Bohemians)
0.65 / 1.13

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 9.6% 6.6% 3.7% 1.2% 0.3% 1 11.7% 13.3% 5.7% 1.8% 0.5% 2 9.9% 9.3% 4.4% 1.4% 0.4% 3 5.1% 4.8% 2.3% 0.7% 0.2% 4+ 2.8% 2.6% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1%

Rows: St Patrick's Athl. goals. Columns: Bohemians goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 90%
Over 1.5 72%
Over 2.5 45%
Over 3.5 24%
Both teams to score
49%
No goals (0–0)
10%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2St Patrick's Athl.46%2.17
Draw27%3.66
Bohemians27%3.77
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.545%2.22
Under 2.555%1.82
Both teams to scoreYes49%2.04
No51%1.96
Double chance1X (St Patrick's Athl. or draw)73%1.36
12 (either side)73%1.38
X2 (draw or Bohemians)54%1.86
Handicap -1St Patrick's Athl. win by 2+27%3.77
Push (exactly one goal)24%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians recent form

St Patrick's Athl. 3W 1D 2L
Bohemians 4W 0D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

St Patrick's Athl. at home

Record (W-D-L)
10-3-4
Win rate
59%
Goals for / match
1.88
Goals against / match
0.71
Clean sheets
7 of 17
  • They have won 17 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 13 clean sheets in 34 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 11 of 34 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Bohemians away

Record (W-D-L)
10-2-5
Win rate
59%
Goals for / match
1.82
Goals against / match
1.24
Clean sheets
7 of 17
  • They have won 18 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 34 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 34 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
  • They have converted 8 of 9 penalties (89%).

League matches this season before kick-off: St Patrick's Athl. at home only, Bohemians away only.

St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians head-to-head

Last 7 meetings: St Patrick's Athl. 2 · draws 3 · Bohemians 2.

St Patrick's Athl.DrawsBohemians
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-06-26Bohemians2-0St Patrick's Athl.Premier Division
2026-04-24St Patrick's Athl.3-1BohemiansPremier Division
2026-02-08Bohemians0-0St Patrick's Athl.Premier Division
2025-10-20Bohemians0-0St Patrick's Athl.Premier Division
2025-07-04St Patrick's Athl.0-0BohemiansPremier Division
2025-04-25Bohemians2-1St Patrick's Athl.Premier Division
2025-03-14St Patrick's Athl.3-0BohemiansPremier Division

Other Matchday 36 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot St Patrick's Athl. to win Predicted score 1 – 0 C Bet on St Patrick's Athl.
Our pick: St Patrick's Athl. to win 18+ Bet Now