Sligo Rovers vs Derry City preview
In the Premier Division fixture between Sligo Rovers and Derry City, the 1X2 probabilities show Derry City at 58% to win, compared to Sligo Rovers at 18%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 0-2, which aligns with Derry City's stronger form, having won 5 of their last 7 matches. Sligo Rovers, on the other hand, have struggled recently with 6 consecutive matches without a win.
The model also indicates a 55% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 53% probability for both teams to score. Sligo Rovers have an expected goals figure of 0.93, while Derry City stands at 1.96, reflecting their attacking advantage. If Sligo Rovers can improve their form, it might challenge these predictions.
Sligo Rovers vs Derry City: model vs market
| Source | Sligo Rovers | Draw | Derry City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 16% | 23% | 60% |
| Market | 19% | 23% | 58% |
| Published | 18% | 23% | 58% |
| Edge | -1% | 0% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.96 vs 0.93.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.63, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Sligo Rovers vs Derry City odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Derry City, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-24.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sligo Rovers | 4.90 | 4.90 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.98 | 4.00 | +0.02 |
| Derry City | 1.62 | 1.62 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Sligo Rovers and Derry City expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.89
- Attack rating (Sligo Rovers / Derry City)
- 0.60 / 1.05
- Defence rating (Sligo Rovers / Derry City)
- 1.62 / 1.06
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sligo Rovers vs Derry City score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sligo Rovers goals. Columns: Derry City goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sligo Rovers vs Derry City goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 53%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sligo Rovers vs Derry City
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sligo Rovers | 18% | 5.45 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.28 | |
| Derry City | 58% | 1.72 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55% | 1.81 |
| Under 2.5 | 45% | 2.23 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 1.88 |
| No | 47% | 2.13 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sligo Rovers or draw) | 42% | 2.40 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Derry City) | 82% | 1.22 | |
| Handicap -1 | Derry City win by 2+ | 37% | 2.71 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Sligo Rovers and Derry City recent form
Sligo Rovers
0W 1D 5L
Derry City
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sligo Rovers at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-6-8
- Win rate
- 18%
- Goals for / match
- 0.94
- Goals against / match
- 1.59
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 17
- They have won 5 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 16 of 34 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Derry City away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-8-7
- Win rate
- 12%
- Goals for / match
- 1.06
- Goals against / match
- 1.47
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 17
- They have won 10 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 34 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Sligo Rovers at home only, Derry City away only.
Sligo Rovers vs Derry City head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Sligo Rovers 1 · draws 1 · Derry City 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | Derry City | 2-0 | Sligo Rovers | Premier Division |
| 2026-04-06 | Sligo Rovers | 0-0 | Derry City | Premier Division |
| 2026-02-06 | Derry City | 2-1 | Sligo Rovers | Premier Division |
| 2025-10-05 | Derry City | 1-0 | Sligo Rovers | Premier Division |
| 2025-07-12 | Sligo Rovers | 2-0 | Derry City | Premier Division |
| 2025-04-22 | Derry City | 3-0 | Sligo Rovers | Premier Division |
| 2025-03-15 | Sligo Rovers | 0-1 | Derry City | Premier Division |
Other Matchday 36 fixtures
- Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers — team news & stats 2026-10-30
- St Patrick's Athl. v Bohemians — match page 2026-10-30
- Drogheda United vs Galway United — team news & stats 2026-10-30
- Shelbourne vs Waterford 2026-10-30
Before and after this match
- Sligo Rovers, previous: Shamrock Rovers – Sligo Rovers, 2026-10-23
- Derry City, previous: Derry City – Dundalk, 2026-10-23