Shelbourne vs Waterford preview
In the Premier Division fixture between Shelbourne and Waterford, the 1X2 probabilities show Shelbourne at 49% to win, while Waterford stands at 27%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance. Shelbourne's expected goals are 1.84, compared to Waterford's 1.44.
Both teams to score has a 65% likelihood, and there's a 64% chance of Over 2.5 goals. However, the match could deviate from these predictions due to Shelbourne's recent form of W-W-W-D-W-L, which shows inconsistency, or Waterford's mixed results of W-W-L-L-D-D.
Shelbourne vs Waterford: model vs market
| Source | Shelbourne | Draw | Waterford |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46% | 25% | 29% |
| Market | 50% | 24% | 27% |
| Published | 49% | 24% | 27% |
| Edge | -1% | 0% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.84 vs 1.44.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.91, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Shelbourne vs Waterford odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Shelbourne, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-24.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shelbourne | 1.87 | 1.87 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.86 | 3.90 | +0.04 |
| Waterford | 3.54 | 3.50 | -0.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Shelbourne and Waterford expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.27
- Attack rating (Shelbourne / Waterford)
- 1.22 / 1.33
- Defence rating (Shelbourne / Waterford)
- 0.94 / 1.03
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Shelbourne vs Waterford score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Shelbourne goals. Columns: Waterford goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Shelbourne vs Waterford goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 65%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Shelbourne vs Waterford
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Shelbourne | 49% | 2.05 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.16 | |
| Waterford | 27% | 3.67 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64% | 1.57 |
| Under 2.5 | 36% | 2.74 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65% | 1.54 |
| No | 35% | 2.87 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Shelbourne or draw) | 73% | 1.37 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Waterford) | 51% | 1.95 | |
| Handicap -1 | Shelbourne win by 2+ | 26% | 3.87 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Shelbourne and Waterford recent form
Shelbourne
4W 1D 1L
Waterford
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Shelbourne at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-5-8
- Win rate
- 24%
- Goals for / match
- 1.47
- Goals against / match
- 1.65
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 17
- They have won 11 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 34 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Waterford away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-4-10
- Win rate
- 18%
- Goals for / match
- 1.35
- Goals against / match
- 2.18
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 17
- They have won 8 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 34 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 9 penalties (67%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Shelbourne at home only, Waterford away only.
Shelbourne vs Waterford head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Shelbourne 3 · draws 2 · Waterford 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | Waterford | 1-0 | Shelbourne | Premier Division |
| 2026-05-22 | Shelbourne | 2-1 | Waterford | Premier Division |
| 2026-02-06 | Waterford | 1-1 | Shelbourne | Premier Division |
| 2025-09-26 | Shelbourne | 2-1 | Waterford | Premier Division |
| 2025-06-23 | Waterford | 2-2 | Shelbourne | Premier Division |
| 2025-05-05 | Shelbourne | 0-1 | Waterford | Premier Division |
| 2025-02-21 | Waterford | 0-1 | Shelbourne | Premier Division |
Other Matchday 36 fixtures
- Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers — team news & stats 2026-10-30
- Sligo Rovers vs Derry City 2026-10-30
- St Patrick's Athl. v Bohemians — match page 2026-10-30
- Drogheda United vs Galway United — team news & stats 2026-10-30
Before and after this match
- Shelbourne, previous: Bohemians v Shelbourne analysis
- Waterford, previous: Waterford vs Drogheda United: odds and pick