Galway United vs St Patrick's Athl. preview
In the upcoming match between Galway United and St Patrick's Athl., the 1X2 probabilities show St Patrick's Athl. at 39% to win, compared to Galway United's 29%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 12% chance. Both teams to score stands at 45%, indicating a decent likelihood of goals from both sides.
Galway United's expected goals are 0.99, while St Patrick's Athl. has 1.18. Recent form shows Galway United with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, while St Patrick's Athl. has 4 wins and 2 losses in their last 6 matches. The confidence grade for this match is C, suggesting uncertainty in the outcome. Factors like sudden changes in player form or injuries could impact these predictions.
Galway United vs St Patrick's Athl.: model vs market
| Source | Galway United | Draw | St Patrick's Athl. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29% | 32% | 39% |
| Market | 24% | 26% | 51% |
| Published | 25% | 27% | 48% |
| Edge | +5% | +6% | -12% |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.84, recorded — the top price across the 1 books we record, each at its own last update.
Galway United and St Patrick's Athl. expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.17
- Attack rating (Galway United / St Patrick's Athl.)
- 1.00 / 1.14
- Defence rating (Galway United / St Patrick's Athl.)
- 0.90 / 0.69
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Galway United vs St Patrick's Athl. score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Galway United goals. Columns: St Patrick's Athl. goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Galway United vs St Patrick's Athl. goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 45%
- No goals (0–0)
- 13%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Galway United vs St Patrick's Athl.
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Galway United | 25% | 3.97 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.69 | |
| St Patrick's Athl. | 48% | 2.10 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37% | 2.70 |
| Under 2.5 | 63% | 1.59 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45% | 2.23 |
| No | 55% | 1.82 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Galway United or draw) | 52% | 1.91 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or St Patrick's Athl.) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| Handicap -1 | St Patrick's Athl. win by 2+ | 17% | 5.78 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Galway United and St Patrick's Athl. recent form
Galway United
2W 2D 2L
St Patrick's Athl.
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Galway United at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-6-5
- Win rate
- 35%
- Goals for / match
- 1.47
- Goals against / match
- 1.47
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 17
- They have won 9 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 32 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
St Patrick's Athl. away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-5-4
- Win rate
- 44%
- Goals for / match
- 1.31
- Goals against / match
- 0.94
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 16
- They have won 17 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Galway United at home only, St Patrick's Athl. away only.
Galway United vs St Patrick's Athl. head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Galway United 2 · draws 2 · St Patrick's Athl. 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-03 | St Patrick's Athl. | 3-0 | Galway United | Premier Division |
| 2026-05-01 | Galway United | 2-2 | St Patrick's Athl. | Premier Division |
| 2026-03-02 | St Patrick's Athl. | 1-0 | Galway United | Premier Division |
| 2025-09-19 | St Patrick's Athl. | 1-1 | Galway United | Premier Division |
| 2025-06-20 | Galway United | 3-1 | St Patrick's Athl. | Premier Division |
| 2025-05-02 | St Patrick's Athl. | 2-0 | Galway United | Premier Division |
| 2025-02-21 | Galway United | 2-1 | St Patrick's Athl. | Premier Division |
Other Matchday 35 fixtures
- Derry City vs Dundalk 2026-10-23
- Bohemians v Shelbourne — match page 2026-10-23
- Waterford vs Drogheda United — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- Shamrock Rovers v Sligo Rovers — match page 2026-10-23
Before and after this match
- Galway United, previous: Waterford – Galway United, 2026-10-19
- St Patrick's Athl., previous: Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. prediction