Bohemians vs Shelbourne preview
In the Premier Division fixture between Bohemians and Shelbourne, Bohemians have a 54% chance to win, while both teams share a 23% probability of a draw or a Shelbourne victory. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Bohemians, with a probability of 8%. The model suggests a high likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 73% and both teams to score at 72%.
Bohemians are in strong recent form, winning their last 6 matches, while Shelbourne has mixed results with 4 wins and 2 losses in their last 6. The expected goals show Bohemians at 2.09 and Shelbourne at 1.70. However, the confidence grade is C, indicating uncertainty that could affect the outcome.
Bohemians vs Shelbourne: model vs market
| Source | Bohemians | Draw | Shelbourne |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46% | 23% | 31% |
| Market | 57% | 24% | 20% |
| Published | 54% | 23% | 23% |
| Edge | -10% | -1% | +11% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.09 vs 1.70.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.67, recorded — the top price across the 4 books we record, each at its own last update.
Bohemians vs Shelbourne odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Bohemians, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-17.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bohemians | 1.65 | 1.65 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.95 | 3.95 | +0.00 |
| Shelbourne | 4.72 | 4.72 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Bohemians and Shelbourne expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.79
- Attack rating (Bohemians / Shelbourne)
- 1.39 / 1.28
- Defence rating (Bohemians / Shelbourne)
- 1.14 / 1.04
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Bohemians vs Shelbourne score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Bohemians goals. Columns: Shelbourne goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Bohemians vs Shelbourne goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 72%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Bohemians vs Shelbourne
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bohemians | 54% | 1.85 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.28 | |
| Shelbourne | 23% | 4.43 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73% | 1.37 |
| Under 2.5 | 27% | 3.69 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72% | 1.38 |
| No | 28% | 3.62 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Bohemians or draw) | 77% | 1.29 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Shelbourne) | 46% | 2.18 | |
| Handicap -1 | Bohemians win by 2+ | 27% | 3.66 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Bohemians and Shelbourne recent form
Bohemians
5W 0D 1L
Shelbourne
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Bohemians at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-6-3
- Win rate
- 47%
- Goals for / match
- 1.71
- Goals against / match
- 1.18
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 17
- They have won 17 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 9 penalties (89%).
Shelbourne away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-8-2
- Win rate
- 41%
- Goals for / match
- 1.41
- Goals against / match
- 1.12
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 17
- They have won 10 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 33 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Bohemians at home only, Shelbourne away only.
Bohemians vs Shelbourne head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Bohemians 2 · draws 3 · Shelbourne 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-22 | Shelbourne | 0-3 | Bohemians | Premier Division |
| 2026-05-04 | Bohemians | 2-2 | Shelbourne | Premier Division |
| 2026-03-16 | Shelbourne | 0-0 | Bohemians | Premier Division |
| 2025-10-26 | Bohemians | 2-3 | Shelbourne | Premier Division |
| 2025-08-09 | Shelbourne | 2-2 | Bohemians | Premier Division |
| 2025-05-16 | Bohemians | 1-0 | Shelbourne | Premier Division |
| 2025-04-11 | Shelbourne | 1-0 | Bohemians | Premier Division |
Other Matchday 35 fixtures
- Derry City vs Dundalk 2026-10-23
- Waterford vs Drogheda United — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- Galway United vs St Patrick's Athl. 2026-10-23
- Shamrock Rovers v Sligo Rovers — match page 2026-10-23
Before and after this match
- Bohemians, previous: Bohemians vs Waterford prediction
- Shelbourne, previous: St Patrick's Athl. – Shelbourne, 2026-10-16