Waterford vs Drogheda United preview
In the match between Waterford and Drogheda United, the 1X2 probabilities suggest a 53% chance for Waterford to win, compared to 22% for Drogheda United. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.82 for Waterford and 1.12 for Drogheda United.
However, recent form shows Waterford with a record of L-L-D-D-W-D, while Drogheda United has W-L-L-W-W-L. This inconsistency in performance could affect the outcome, making it possible for either team to score, as indicated by the 57% likelihood for both teams to score and the 56% chance of Over 2.5 goals.
Waterford vs Drogheda United: model vs market
| Source | Waterford | Draw | Drogheda United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53% | 25% | 22% |
| Market | 44% | 26% | 29% |
| Published | 46% | 26% | 28% |
| Edge | +9% | -1% | -7% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.82 vs 1.12.
- The market prices Waterford below the model: +8.5 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.10, recorded — the top price across the 1 books we record, each at its own last update.
Waterford and Drogheda United expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.94
- Attack rating (Waterford / Drogheda United)
- 1.19 / 0.95
- Defence rating (Waterford / Drogheda United)
- 1.02 / 1.06
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Waterford vs Drogheda United score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Waterford goals. Columns: Drogheda United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Waterford vs Drogheda United goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Waterford vs Drogheda United
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Waterford | 46% | 2.15 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.86 | |
| Drogheda United | 28% | 3.62 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56% | 1.78 |
| Under 2.5 | 44% | 2.29 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.74 |
| No | 43% | 2.35 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Waterford or draw) | 72% | 1.38 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Drogheda United) | 54% | 1.87 | |
| Handicap -1 | Waterford win by 2+ | 31% | 3.28 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Waterford and Drogheda United recent form
Waterford
1W 3D 2L
Drogheda United
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Waterford at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-9-3
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.38
- Goals against / match
- 1.19
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 16
- They have won 7 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 32 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 8 penalties (75%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Drogheda United away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-4-9
- Win rate
- 24%
- Goals for / match
- 1.24
- Goals against / match
- 1.94
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 17
- They have won 8 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 33 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Waterford at home only, Drogheda United away only.
Waterford vs Drogheda United head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Waterford 2 · draws 3 · Drogheda United 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | Drogheda United | 3-3 | Waterford | Premier Division |
| 2026-05-18 | Waterford | 2-1 | Drogheda United | Premier Division |
| 2026-02-13 | Drogheda United | 2-0 | Waterford | Premier Division |
| 2025-10-05 | Waterford | 2-0 | Drogheda United | Premier Division |
| 2025-08-08 | Drogheda United | 0-0 | Waterford | Premier Division |
| 2025-05-30 | Waterford | 2-2 | Drogheda United | Premier Division |
| 2025-04-04 | Drogheda United | 2-0 | Waterford | Premier Division |
Other Matchday 35 fixtures
- Derry City vs Dundalk 2026-10-23
- Bohemians v Shelbourne — match page 2026-10-23
- Galway United vs St Patrick's Athl. 2026-10-23
- Shamrock Rovers v Sligo Rovers — match page 2026-10-23
Before and after this match
- Waterford, previous: Waterford – Galway United, 2026-10-19
- Drogheda United, previous: Drogheda United v Derry City analysis