Galway United vs Shamrock Rovers preview
Galway United faces Shamrock Rovers with a 41% chance of winning compared to Shamrock's 32%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with an expected goals figure of 1.59 for Galway United and 1.37 for Shamrock Rovers. There is a 57% probability for Over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance that both teams will score.
Galway United's recent form shows 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, while Shamrock Rovers has 2 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses. Despite Galway's home advantage, their head-to-head record against Shamrock Rovers is poor, with 0 wins and 5 losses in the last 7 encounters. This could impact the outcome of the match.
Galway United vs Shamrock Rovers: model vs market
| Source | Galway United | Draw | Shamrock Rovers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41% | 27% | 32% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 41% | 27% | 32% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Galway United and Shamrock Rovers expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.96
- Attack rating (Galway United / Shamrock Rovers)
- 0.94 / 1.20
- Defence rating (Galway United / Shamrock Rovers)
- 0.99 / 1.17
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Galway United vs Shamrock Rovers score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Galway United goals. Columns: Shamrock Rovers goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Galway United vs Shamrock Rovers goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Galway United vs Shamrock Rovers
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Galway United | 41% | 2.41 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.76 | |
| Shamrock Rovers | 32% | 3.13 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57% | 1.76 |
| Under 2.5 | 43% | 2.31 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.65 |
| No | 40% | 2.53 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Galway United or draw) | 68% | 1.47 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Shamrock Rovers) | 59% | 1.71 | |
| Handicap -1 | Galway United win by 2+ | 21% | 4.66 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Galway United and Shamrock Rovers recent form
Galway United
2W 2D 2L
Shamrock Rovers
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Galway United at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-6-5
- Win rate
- 31%
- Goals for / match
- 1.44
- Goals against / match
- 1.56
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 16
- They have won 9 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 32 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Shamrock Rovers away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-5-5
- Win rate
- 38%
- Goals for / match
- 1.31
- Goals against / match
- 1.12
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 16
- They have won 17 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Galway United at home only, Shamrock Rovers away only.
Galway United vs Shamrock Rovers head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Galway United 0 · draws 2 · Shamrock Rovers 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-26 | Shamrock Rovers | 3-1 | Galway United | Premier Division |
| 2026-05-08 | Galway United | 1-3 | Shamrock Rovers | Premier Division |
| 2026-03-20 | Shamrock Rovers | 2-0 | Galway United | Premier Division |
| 2025-10-29 | Shamrock Rovers | 1-0 | Galway United | Premier Division |
| 2025-08-10 | Galway United | 0-0 | Shamrock Rovers | Premier Division |
| 2025-05-30 | Shamrock Rovers | 0-0 | Galway United | Premier Division |
| 2025-04-04 | Galway United | 0-1 | Shamrock Rovers | Premier Division |
Other Matchday 34 fixtures
- Bohemians v Waterford — match page 2026-10-16
- St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne — team news & stats 2026-10-16
- Drogheda United vs Derry City 2026-10-16
Before and after this match
- Galway United, previous: Waterford – Galway United, 2026-10-09
- Shamrock Rovers, previous: Shamrock Rovers v Bohemians analysis