Waterford vs Galway United preview
Waterford faces Galway United with a 47% chance of winning according to the model. The expected goals suggest a strong performance from Waterford at 1.74, while Galway United is at 1.07. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with the 53% probability for Over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
However, recent form shows Waterford with mixed results, including two draws and a loss in their last three matches. Galway United has also struggled, with only one win in their last five games. The confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions. This could lead to unexpected outcomes, especially given the close head-to-head record of 2 wins each and 3 draws in their last 7 encounters.
Waterford vs Galway United: model vs market
| Source | Waterford | Draw | Galway United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52% | 26% | 22% |
| Market | 46% | 24% | 30% |
| Published | 47% | 25% | 28% |
| Edge | +6% | +2% | -8% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.74 vs 1.07.
- The market prices Waterford below the model: +6.5 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.08, recorded — the top price across the 4 books we record, each at its own last update.
Waterford vs Galway United odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Waterford, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Waterford | 2.08 | 2.05 | -0.03 |
| Draw | 3.96 | 3.88 | -0.08 |
| Galway United | 3.02 | 3.08 | +0.06 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Waterford and Galway United expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.81
- Attack rating (Waterford / Galway United)
- 1.24 / 0.94
- Defence rating (Waterford / Galway United)
- 0.98 / 0.99
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Waterford vs Galway United score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Waterford goals. Columns: Galway United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Waterford vs Galway United goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Waterford vs Galway United
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Waterford | 47% | 2.12 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.08 | |
| Galway United | 28% | 3.54 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53% | 1.87 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 2.15 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.81 |
| No | 45% | 2.24 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Waterford or draw) | 72% | 1.39 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Galway United) | 53% | 1.89 | |
| Handicap -1 | Waterford win by 2+ | 29% | 3.40 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Waterford and Galway United recent form
Waterford
2W 3D 1L
Galway United
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Waterford at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-9-3
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.38
- Goals against / match
- 1.19
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 16
- They have won 7 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 8 penalties (75%).
Galway United away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-5-7
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.19
- Goals against / match
- 1.44
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 16
- They have won 9 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 5 penalties (60%).
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Waterford at home only, Galway United away only.
Waterford vs Galway United head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Waterford 2 · draws 3 · Galway United 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | Galway United | 0-0 | Waterford | Premier Division |
| 2026-04-24 | Waterford | 1-1 | Galway United | Premier Division |
| 2026-03-16 | Galway United | 4-3 | Waterford | Premier Division |
| 2025-11-01 | Waterford | 1-1 | Galway United | Premier Division |
| 2025-07-25 | Galway United | 2-4 | Waterford | Premier Division |
| 2025-05-09 | Waterford | 1-0 | Galway United | Premier Division |
| 2025-03-14 | Galway United | 1-0 | Waterford | Premier Division |
Other Matchday 33 fixtures
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- Shelbourne vs Sligo Rovers — team news & stats 2026-10-09