Updated

Premier Division · Matchday 33

Waterford vs Galway United

· Waterford Regional Sports Centre, Waterford· Referee Oliver Moran

Full time3 – 2

Alin prediction was Waterford to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
WaterfordDrawGalway United

Waterford vs Galway United: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceWaterfordDrawGalway United
Model45%28%28%
Market48%25%27%
Published47%26%27%
Edge-1%+1%0%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.54 vs 1.17.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Waterford vs Galway United odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Waterford, 30 snapshots since 2026-10-03.

Opened 2.08Now 1.93 -0.15
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Waterford2.081.93-0.15
Draw3.963.70-0.26
Galway United3.023.42+0.40

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Waterford and Galway United expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.54Waterford
1.17Galway United
Total expected goals
2.72
Attack rating (Waterford / Galway United)
1.19 / 1.00
Defence rating (Waterford / Galway United)
1.02 / 0.90

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Waterford vs Galway United score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.8% 6.5% 4.5% 1.8% 0.7% 1 9.0% 13.2% 7.0% 2.8% 1.0% 2 7.9% 9.2% 5.4% 2.1% 0.8% 3 4.0% 4.8% 2.8% 1.1% 0.4% 4+ 2.2% 2.6% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2%

Rows: Waterford goals. Columns: Galway United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Waterford vs Galway United goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%
Over 1.5 77%
Over 2.5 51%
Over 3.5 29%
Both teams to score
56%
No goals (0–0)
8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Waterford vs Galway United

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Waterford47%2.12
Draw26%3.90
Galway United27%3.67
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.551%1.96
Under 2.549%2.05
Both teams to scoreYes56%1.80
No44%2.25
Double chance1X (Waterford or draw)73%1.37
12 (either side)74%1.35
X2 (draw or Galway United)53%1.89
Handicap -1Waterford win by 2+23%4.31
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Waterford and Galway United recent form

Waterford 1W 3D 2L
Galway United 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Waterford at home

Record (W-D-L)
4-9-3
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.38
Goals against / match
1.19
Clean sheets
3 of 16
  • They have won 7 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 33 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 10 of 33 matches.
  • They have converted 6 of 9 penalties (67%).
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Galway United away

Record (W-D-L)
4-5-7
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.19
Goals against / match
1.44
Clean sheets
0 of 16
  • They have won 10 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 33 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 33 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
  • 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Waterford at home only, Galway United away only.

Expected lineups

Waterford lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 1 S. McMullan
  2. 3 Benny Couto
  3. 13 K. Long
  4. 16 H. Cann
  5. 5 J. Mahon
  6. 10 C. Noonan
  7. 8 E. McLaughlin
  8. 7 N. Mawene
  9. 2 J. Houston
  10. 18 T. Lonergan
  11. 9 P. Amond

Bench: J. Ashton, T. Coyle, L. Heeney, J. Faria, J. Voilås, Arlo Ricky Hugh Doherty, D. McMenamy, G. Amedu, Noah O'Brien

Galway United lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 16 Hugo Alberto Pires da Cunha
  2. 20 L. Devitt
  3. 12 Gianfranco Facchineri
  4. 2 A. O'Connor
  5. 3 Connor Barratt
  6. 4 J. Keohane
  7. 8 A. Bolger
  8. 24 E. McCarthy
  9. 10 D. Hurley
  10. 11 K. Twardek
  11. 7 S. Walsh

Bench: F. Lomboto, M. Wolfe, Junior Thiam, D. Connolly, F. Pierrot, J. Morahan, Vincent Angelini, C. Whittaker

Waterford vs Galway United head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Waterford 2 · draws 4 · Galway United 4.

WaterfordDrawsGalway United
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-07-25Galway United0-0WaterfordPremier Division
2026-04-24Waterford1-1Galway UnitedPremier Division
2026-03-16Galway United4-3WaterfordPremier Division
2025-11-01Waterford1-1Galway UnitedPremier Division
2025-07-25Galway United2-4WaterfordPremier Division
2025-05-09Waterford1-0Galway UnitedPremier Division
2025-03-14Galway United1-0WaterfordPremier Division
2024-09-27Waterford1-2Galway UnitedPremier Division
2024-07-12Galway United1-0WaterfordPremier Division
2024-04-12Waterford0-0Galway UnitedPremier Division

Other Matchday 33 fixtures

Before and after this match