Irtysh vs FC Astana preview
In the Kazakhstan Premier League fixture between Irtysh and FC Astana, the 1X2 probabilities show FC Astana at 45%, compared to Irtysh's 27%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which aligns with FC Astana's stronger expected goals of 1.49 against Irtysh's 1.11.
While both teams to score sits at 53%, indicating a decent chance for goals from both sides, Irtysh's recent form of W-W-L-W-L-L raises concerns about their consistency. FC Astana's recent results, with 4 wins in their last 6 matches, suggest they are in better shape. This context could influence the match outcome, making it possible for the predicted scoreline to change.
Irtysh vs FC Astana: model vs market
| Source | Irtysh | Draw | FC Astana |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27% | 28% | 45% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 27% | 28% | 45% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.49 vs 1.11.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Irtysh and FC Astana expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.60
- Attack rating (Irtysh / FC Astana)
- 0.94 / 1.30
- Defence rating (Irtysh / FC Astana)
- 1.01 / 0.81
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Irtysh vs FC Astana score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Irtysh goals. Columns: FC Astana goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Irtysh vs FC Astana goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 53%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Irtysh vs FC Astana
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Irtysh | 27% | 3.69 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.53 | |
| FC Astana | 45% | 2.24 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48% | 2.08 |
| Under 2.5 | 52% | 1.93 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 1.88 |
| No | 47% | 2.14 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Irtysh or draw) | 55% | 1.81 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or FC Astana) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Astana win by 2+ | 23% | 4.40 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Irtysh and FC Astana recent form
Irtysh
3W 0D 3L
FC Astana
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Irtysh at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-3-5
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.17
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 12
- They have won 6 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 25 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FC Astana away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-5-5
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 0.92
- Goals against / match
- 1.42
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 12
- They have won 14 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Irtysh at home only, FC Astana away only.
Irtysh vs FC Astana head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Irtysh 0 · draws 0 · FC Astana 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-14 | FC Astana | 2-0 | Irtysh | Kazakhstan Premier League |
Before and after this match
- Irtysh, previous: Irtysh vs Kyzyl-Zhar prediction
- FC Astana, previous: FK Tobol Kostanay – FC Astana, 2026-10-10