Okzhetpes vs Kyzyl-Zhar: model vs market
| Source | Okzhetpes | Draw | Kyzyl-Zhar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 68% | 18% | 14% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 68% | 18% | 14% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.56 vs 1.11.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet). Best available price on the pick: 1.94, recorded — the top price across the 3 books we record, each at its own last update.
Okzhetpes vs Kyzyl-Zhar odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Okzhetpes, 8 snapshots since 2026-08-22.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Okzhetpes | 1.92 | 1.92 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.30 | 3.30 | +0.00 |
| Kyzyl-Zhar | 3.55 | 3.55 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Okzhetpes and Kyzyl-Zhar expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.67
- Attack rating (Okzhetpes / Kyzyl-Zhar)
- 1.36 / 0.83
- Defence rating (Okzhetpes / Kyzyl-Zhar)
- 1.18 / 1.28
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Okzhetpes vs Kyzyl-Zhar score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Okzhetpes goals. Columns: Kyzyl-Zhar goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Okzhetpes vs Kyzyl-Zhar goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Okzhetpes vs Kyzyl-Zhar
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Okzhetpes | 68% | 1.47 |
| Draw | 18% | 5.45 | |
| Kyzyl-Zhar | 14% | 7.26 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71% | 1.41 |
| Under 2.5 | 29% | 3.44 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.60 |
| No | 37% | 2.68 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Okzhetpes or draw) | 86% | 1.16 |
| 12 (either side) | 82% | 1.22 | |
| X2 (draw or Kyzyl-Zhar) | 32% | 3.11 | |
| Handicap -1 | Okzhetpes win by 2+ | 47% | 2.12 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Okzhetpes and Kyzyl-Zhar recent form
Okzhetpes
4W 0D 2L
Kyzyl-Zhar
0W 3D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Okzhetpes at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-4-1
- Win rate
- 62%
- Goals for / match
- 1.77
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 13
- They have won 13 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Kyzyl-Zhar away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-7
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 0.58
- Goals against / match
- 1.58
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 12
- They have won 6 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 26 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Okzhetpes at home only, Kyzyl-Zhar away only.
Okzhetpes vs Kyzyl-Zhar head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Okzhetpes 2 · draws 0 · Kyzyl-Zhar 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Kyzyl-Zhar | 0-1 | Okzhetpes | Kazakhstan Premier League |
| 2025-09-13 | Kyzyl-Zhar | 3-1 | Okzhetpes | Kazakhstan Premier League |
| 2025-05-31 | Okzhetpes | 3-2 | Kyzyl-Zhar | Kazakhstan Premier League |
Before and after this match
- Okzhetpes, previous: Ulytau v Okzhetpes analysis
- Kyzyl-Zhar, previous: Irtysh vs Kyzyl-Zhar prediction