Valencia vs Villarreal preview
In the La Liga fixture between Valencia and Villarreal, the 1X2 probabilities show Villarreal at 44%, while Valencia stands at 30%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 9% chance. Both teams to score has a high probability of 71%, and Over 2.5 goals is forecasted at 70%.
Valencia's recent form shows 2 draws and 4 losses in their last 6 matches, while Villarreal has 3 wins and 2 losses in the same period. The expected goals indicate Valencia at 1.56 and Villarreal at 1.96, suggesting a competitive match. However, if Valencia improves their form, they could challenge Villarreal's current edge.
Why this pick: Valencia vs Villarreal
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Valencia 10, Villarreal 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Valencia vs Villarreal: model vs market
| Source | Valencia | Draw | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31% | 25% | 44% |
| Market | 30% | 26% | 44% |
| Published | 30% | 26% | 44% |
| Edge | +1% | -1% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.95 vs 1.56.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.22, recorded — the top price across the 11 books we record, each at its own last update.
Valencia vs Villarreal odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Villarreal, 17 snapshots since 2026-10-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia | 3.20 | 3.19 | -0.02 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.60 | +0.00 |
| Villarreal | 2.00 | 2.15 | +0.15 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Valencia and Villarreal expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.51
- Attack rating (Valencia / Villarreal)
- 0.95 / 1.54
- Defence rating (Valencia / Villarreal)
- 1.09 / 1.03
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Valencia vs Villarreal score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Valencia goals. Columns: Villarreal goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Valencia vs Villarreal goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 71%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Valencia vs Villarreal
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Valencia | 30% | 3.33 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.84 | |
| Villarreal | 44% | 2.27 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 | 31% | 3.27 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71% | 1.41 |
| No | 29% | 3.43 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Valencia or draw) | 56% | 1.79 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Villarreal) | 70% | 1.43 | |
| Handicap -1 | Villarreal win by 2+ | 25% | 3.92 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Valencia and Villarreal recent form
Valencia
1W 2D 3L
Villarreal
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Valencia at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.40
- Goals against / match
- 1.80
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
Villarreal away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-2
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 64% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Valencia at home only, Villarreal away only.
Valencia vs Villarreal head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Valencia 1 · draws 2 · Villarreal 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-22 | Villarreal | 2-1 | Valencia | La Liga |
| 2025-10-25 | Valencia | 0-2 | Villarreal | La Liga |
| 2025-02-15 | Villarreal | 1-1 | Valencia | La Liga |
| 2024-08-31 | Valencia | 1-1 | Villarreal | La Liga |
| 2024-03-17 | Villarreal | 1-0 | Valencia | La Liga |
| 2024-01-02 | Valencia | 3-1 | Villarreal | La Liga |
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- Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruna — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Athletic Club vs Getafe 2026-10-25
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Before and after this match
- Valencia, previous: Valencia vs Athletic Club: odds and pick
- Valencia, next: Tavernes v Valencia analysis
- Villarreal, previous: Liverpool vs Villarreal: odds and pick
- Villarreal, next: Manacor – Villarreal, 2026-10-27