Celta Vigo vs Real Betis preview
Celta Vigo faces Real Betis with a 36% chance of winning compared to Betis's 37%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.57 for Celta Vigo and 1.58 for Real Betis. Both teams to score stands at 66%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 63%.
Celta Vigo's recent form shows 2 wins, 2 losses, and 2 draws, while Real Betis has 4 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss. While Celta has a slight edge in head-to-head matches with 2 wins and 3 draws in the last 6 encounters, the current form of Real Betis could challenge this trend. A draw is also a possibility with a 27% probability.
Why this pick: Celta Vigo vs Real Betis
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Celta Vigo 10, Real Betis 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Celta Vigo vs Real Betis: model vs market
| Source | Celta Vigo | Draw | Real Betis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38% | 27% | 35% |
| Market | 35% | 27% | 38% |
| Published | 36% | 27% | 37% |
| Edge | +3% | 0% | -3% |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.95, recorded — the top price across the 11 books we record, each at its own last update.
Celta Vigo vs Real Betis odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Real Betis, 17 snapshots since 2026-10-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Celta Vigo | 2.35 | 2.70 | +0.35 |
| Draw | 3.50 | 3.45 | -0.05 |
| Real Betis | 2.95 | 2.50 | -0.46 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Celta Vigo and Real Betis expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.15
- Attack rating (Celta Vigo / Real Betis)
- 0.76 / 1.39
- Defence rating (Celta Vigo / Real Betis)
- 0.98 / 1.30
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Celta Vigo vs Real Betis score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Celta Vigo goals. Columns: Real Betis goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Celta Vigo vs Real Betis goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 66%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Celta Vigo vs Real Betis
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Celta Vigo | 36% | 2.80 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.66 | |
| Real Betis | 37% | 2.70 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63% | 1.60 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 2.68 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66% | 1.51 |
| No | 34% | 2.96 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Celta Vigo or draw) | 63% | 1.59 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Real Betis) | 64% | 1.55 | |
| Handicap -1 | Real Betis win by 2+ | 18% | 5.57 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Celta Vigo and Real Betis recent form
Celta Vigo
2W 2D 2L
Real Betis
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Celta Vigo at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Real Betis away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Celta Vigo at home only, Real Betis away only.
Celta Vigo vs Real Betis head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Celta Vigo 2 · draws 3 · Real Betis 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | Real Betis | 1-1 | Celta Vigo | La Liga |
| 2025-08-27 | Celta Vigo | 1-1 | Real Betis | La Liga |
| 2025-02-08 | Celta Vigo | 3-2 | Real Betis | La Liga |
| 2024-11-10 | Real Betis | 2-2 | Celta Vigo | La Liga |
| 2024-04-12 | Real Betis | 2-1 | Celta Vigo | La Liga |
| 2024-01-03 | Celta Vigo | 2-1 | Real Betis | La Liga |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Rayo Vallecano vs Elche 2026-10-24
- Racing Santander vs Espanyol — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Valencia vs Villarreal 2026-10-24
- Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruna — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Athletic Club vs Getafe 2026-10-25
- Real Sociedad v Levante — match page 2026-10-25
- Barcelona v Real Madrid — match page 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Celta Vigo, previous: Celtic v Celta Vigo analysis
- Celta Vigo, next: Salamanca UDS vs Celta Vigo prediction
- Real Betis, previous: Real Betis – Feyenoord, 2026-10-21
- Real Betis, next: Navalcarnero vs Real Betis: odds and pick