Kauno Žalgiris vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius preview
In the A Lyga fixture between Kauno Žalgiris and FK Zalgiris Vilnius, the 1X2 probabilities show Kauno Žalgiris at 43%, FK Zalgiris Vilnius at 33%, and a draw at 24%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance. The model also indicates a strong likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 68% and both teams to score at 69%.
Kauno Žalgiris has a recent form of W-L-W-L-W-W, while FK Zalgiris Vilnius shows W-W-L-W-D-W. The expected goals are 1.87 for Kauno Žalgiris and 1.63 for FK Zalgiris Vilnius. However, the confidence grade is C, which suggests that unexpected outcomes could arise, potentially affecting the predicted scoreline and goal expectations.
Kauno Žalgiris vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius: model vs market
| Source | Kauno Žalgiris | Draw | FK Zalgiris Vilnius |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35% | 23% | 42% |
| Market | 52% | 25% | 23% |
| Published | 48% | 24% | 28% |
| Edge | -4% | -1% | +5% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.79, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -14.7% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Kauno Žalgiris vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Kauno Žalgiris, 9 snapshots since 2026-10-21.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kauno Žalgiris | 1.90 | 1.73 | -0.17 |
| Draw | 3.42 | 3.60 | +0.18 |
| FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 3.30 | 3.85 | +0.55 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Kauno Žalgiris and FK Zalgiris Vilnius expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.82
- Attack rating (Kauno Žalgiris / FK Zalgiris Vilnius)
- 1.09 / 1.43
- Defence rating (Kauno Žalgiris / FK Zalgiris Vilnius)
- 1.16 / 1.15
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Kauno Žalgiris vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Kauno Žalgiris goals. Columns: FK Zalgiris Vilnius goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Kauno Žalgiris vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 73%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Kauno Žalgiris vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kauno Žalgiris | 48% | 2.10 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.11 | |
| FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 28% | 3.57 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73% | 1.36 |
| Under 2.5 | 27% | 3.77 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73% | 1.36 |
| No | 27% | 3.75 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Kauno Žalgiris or draw) | 72% | 1.39 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or FK Zalgiris Vilnius) | 52% | 1.91 | |
| Handicap -1 | Kauno Žalgiris win by 2+ | 19% | 5.37 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Kauno Žalgiris and FK Zalgiris Vilnius recent form
Kauno Žalgiris
3W 0D 3L
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Kauno Žalgiris at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-4-3
- Win rate
- 56%
- Goals for / match
- 2.38
- Goals against / match
- 0.56
- Clean sheets
- 9 of 16
- They have won 17 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
- They have kept 16 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 49% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-5-5
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.93
- Goals against / match
- 0.93
- Clean sheets
- 8 of 15
- They have won 16 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 8 penalties (88%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Kauno Žalgiris at home only, FK Zalgiris Vilnius away only.
Kauno Žalgiris vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Kauno Žalgiris 5 · draws 1 · FK Zalgiris Vilnius 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 3-2 | Kauno Žalgiris | A Lyga |
| 2026-05-31 | Kauno Žalgiris | 0-1 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | A Lyga |
| 2026-04-05 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 0-3 | Kauno Žalgiris | A Lyga |
| 2025-10-22 | Kauno Žalgiris | 1-2 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | A Lyga |
| 2025-08-04 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 1-2 | Kauno Žalgiris | A Lyga |
| 2025-05-20 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 2-4 | Kauno Žalgiris | Cup |
| 2025-05-17 | Kauno Žalgiris | 3-0 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | A Lyga |
| 2025-04-06 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 0-0 | Kauno Žalgiris | A Lyga |
| 2024-09-22 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 5-0 | Kauno Žalgiris | A Lyga |
| 2024-07-05 | Kauno Žalgiris | 1-0 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | A Lyga |
Other Matchday 34 fixtures
- TransINVEST Vilnius v Hegelmann Litauen — match page 2026-10-24
- Banga vs Šiauliai — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Džiugas Telšiai vs Panevėžys 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Kauno Žalgiris, previous: Kauno Žalgiris vs Brann prediction
- Kauno Žalgiris, next: Hegelmann Litauen vs Kauno Žalgiris prediction
- FK Zalgiris Vilnius, previous: FK Zalgiris Vilnius – Hegelmann Litauen, 2026-10-18