Updated

Liga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 10

Tapatío vs Tepatitlán

· Estadio Akron, Zapopan· Referee J. M. Negrete Preciado

Full time4 – 1

Alin prediction was Tapatío to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
TapatíoDrawTepatitlán

Tapatío vs Tepatitlán: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceTapatíoDrawTepatitlán
Model73%16%11%
Market60%21%19%
Published63%20%17%
Edge+3%-1%-2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.76 vs 1.01.
  • The market prices Tapatío below our published probability: +3.3 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Tapatío vs Tepatitlán odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Tapatío, 7 snapshots since 2026-10-10.

Opened 1.50Now 1.52 +0.02
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Tapatío1.501.52+0.02
Draw4.014.33+0.32
Tepatitlán5.004.82-0.18

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Tapatío and Tepatitlán expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.76Tapatío
1.01Tepatitlán
Total expected goals
3.77
Attack rating (Tapatío / Tepatitlán)
1.07 / 0.73
Defence rating (Tapatío / Tepatitlán)
1.20 / 1.44

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Tapatío vs Tepatitlán score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.0% 1.7% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 1 5.7% 7.1% 3.3% 1.1% 0.3% 2 8.8% 8.9% 4.5% 1.5% 0.5% 3 8.1% 8.2% 4.1% 1.4% 0.4% 4+ 10.9% 11.0% 5.5% 1.9% 0.6%

Rows: Tapatío goals. Columns: Tepatitlán goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Tapatío vs Tepatitlán goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 90%
Over 2.5 73%
Over 3.5 52%
Both teams to score
60%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Tapatío vs Tepatitlán

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Tapatío63%1.58
Draw20%5.04
Tepatitlán17%5.94
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.573%1.38
Under 2.527%3.64
Both teams to scoreYes60%1.66
No40%2.51
Double chance1X (Tapatío or draw)83%1.20
12 (either side)80%1.25
X2 (draw or Tepatitlán)37%2.73
Handicap -1Tapatío win by 2+53%1.87
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Tapatío and Tepatitlán recent form

Tapatío 1W 1D 4L
Tepatitlán 1W 1D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Tapatío at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-1-2
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
3 of 6
  • They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.

Tepatitlán away

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-4
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.25
Goals against / match
3.75
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They average 1.1 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 11 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Tapatío at home only, Tepatitlán away only.

Tapatío vs Tepatitlán head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Tapatío 2 · draws 3 · Tepatitlán 5.

TapatíoDrawsTepatitlán
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-01-24Tepatitlán2-0TapatíoLiga de Expansión MX
2025-08-17Tapatío1-3TepatitlánLiga de Expansión MX
2025-02-15Tepatitlán1-0TapatíoLiga de Expansión MX
2024-11-11Tapatío1-1TepatitlánLiga de Expansión MX
2024-11-08Tepatitlán1-1TapatíoLiga de Expansión MX
2024-09-01Tapatío2-0TepatitlánLiga de Expansión MX
2024-03-23Tepatitlán0-4TapatíoLiga de Expansión MX
2023-09-25Tapatío2-2TepatitlánLiga de Expansión MX
2023-03-26Tapatío0-2TepatitlánLiga de Expansión MX
2022-09-24Tepatitlán3-2TapatíoLiga de Expansión MX

Before and after this match