Tapatío vs Tepatitlán: model vs market
| Source | Tapatío | Draw | Tepatitlán |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 79% | 14% | 7% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 79% | 14% | 7% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.90 vs 0.85.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Tapatío and Tepatitlán expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.75
- Attack rating (Tapatío / Tepatitlán)
- 1.06 / 0.72
- Defence rating (Tapatío / Tepatitlán)
- 1.02 / 1.52
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Tapatío vs Tepatitlán score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Tapatío goals. Columns: Tepatitlán goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Tapatío vs Tepatitlán goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Tapatío vs Tepatitlán
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tapatío | 79% | 1.27 |
| Draw | 14% | 7.15 | |
| Tepatitlán | 7% | 13.48 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72% | 1.38 |
| Under 2.5 | 28% | 3.61 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.83 |
| No | 45% | 2.20 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Tapatío or draw) | 93% | 1.08 |
| 12 (either side) | 86% | 1.16 | |
| X2 (draw or Tepatitlán) | 21% | 4.67 | |
| Handicap -1 | Tapatío win by 2+ | 60% | 1.67 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Tapatío and Tepatitlán recent form
Tapatío
2W 1D 3L
Tepatitlán
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Tapatío at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-1
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
Tepatitlán away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.25
- Goals against / match
- 3.75
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They average 0.8 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 9 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Tapatío at home only, Tepatitlán away only.
Tapatío vs Tepatitlán head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Tapatío 0 · draws 0 · Tepatitlán 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-24 | Tepatitlán | 2-0 | Tapatío | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2025-08-17 | Tapatío | 1-3 | Tepatitlán | Liga de Expansión MX |