Piratas vs Tepatitlán preview
In the Liga de Expansión MX match between Piratas and Tepatitlán, the 1X2 probabilities show a strong favor for Piratas at 78%, while Tepatitlán has just 8%. The most likely scoreline is 3-0, with a 10% chance of that occurring. Piratas also has an expected goals figure of 3.11 compared to Tepatitlán's 0.84, suggesting a significant attacking advantage.
However, the confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty. While the model predicts Over 2.5 goals at 76% and both teams to score at 55%, Tepatitlán's recent form, with 6 matches resulting in only 1 win, could lead to a different outcome than expected.
Piratas vs Tepatitlán: model vs market
| Source | Piratas | Draw | Tepatitlán |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 81% | 12% | 6% |
| Market | 80% | 12% | 7% |
| Published | 81% | 12% | 7% |
| Edge | +1% | 0% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.10 vs 0.85.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.20, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Piratas vs Tepatitlán odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Piratas, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-13.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Piratas | 1.25 | 1.14 | -0.11 |
| Draw | 5.50 | 7.40 | +1.90 |
| Tepatitlán | 9.40 | 12.57 | +3.17 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Piratas and Tepatitlán expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.95
- Attack rating (Piratas / Tepatitlán)
- 1.10 / 0.74
- Defence rating (Piratas / Tepatitlán)
- 0.98 / 1.57
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Piratas vs Tepatitlán score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Piratas goals. Columns: Tepatitlán goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Piratas vs Tepatitlán goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Piratas vs Tepatitlán
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Piratas | 81% | 1.24 |
| Draw | 12% | 8.07 | |
| Tepatitlán | 7% | 14.16 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75% | 1.33 |
| Under 2.5 | 25% | 4.07 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.82 |
| No | 45% | 2.22 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Piratas or draw) | 93% | 1.08 |
| 12 (either side) | 88% | 1.14 | |
| X2 (draw or Tepatitlán) | 19% | 5.14 | |
| Handicap -1 | Piratas win by 2+ | 64% | 1.57 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Piratas and Tepatitlán recent form
Piratas
3W 1D 2L
Tepatitlán
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Piratas at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-1
- Win rate
- 80%
- Goals for / match
- 2.20
- Goals against / match
- 0.60
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 8 penalties (75%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Tepatitlán away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-5
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.40
- Goals against / match
- 3.80
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.1 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 12 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Piratas at home only, Tepatitlán away only.
Other Apertura - 13 fixtures
- Correcaminos Uat v Dorados — match page 2026-10-17
- CA La Paz vs Tlaxcala 2026-10-17
- Cruz Azul Hidalgo v Mineros de Zacatecas — match page 2026-10-17
- Monarcas vs CDS Tampico Madero — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Cancún vs Venados FC 2026-10-18
- Durango vs Tapatío — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Leones Negros UDG vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca — team news & stats 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Piratas, previous: Tlaxcala v Piratas analysis
- Tepatitlán, previous: Tapatío v Tepatitlán analysis
- Tepatitlán, next: Tepatitlán vs Cancún prediction