Tepatitlán vs Cancún Prediction & Betting Tips 24/10/2026

Tepatitlán vs Cancún preview

In the Liga de Expansión MX fixture between Tepatitlán and Cancún, the 1X2 probabilities show Cancún at 55%, while Tepatitlán is at 22%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 1-2, which suggests Cancún could secure a win. Tepatitlán has struggled recently with 1 win in their last 6 matches, while Cancún has shown more resilience with 3 wins in their last 6.

The model also indicates a strong chance for Over 2.5 goals at 64% and both teams to score at 63%. Tepatitlán has an expected goals figure of 1.25, while Cancún stands at 2.07. If Tepatitlán can improve their form, they might challenge Cancún more than expected.

Tepatitlán vs Cancún: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Tepatitlán	Draw	Cancún
Model	22%	23%	55%
Market	—	—	—
Published	22%	23%	55%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.07 vs 1.25.
Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Tepatitlán and Cancún expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.25Tepatitlán

2.07Cancún

Total expected goals: 3.32
Attack rating (Tepatitlán / Cancún): 0.74 / 1.13
Defence rating (Tepatitlán / Cancún): 1.57 / 0.94

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Tepatitlán vs Cancún score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.5% 6.5% 7.7% 5.3% 4.5% 1 3.6% 10.3% 9.7% 6.7% 5.6% 2 2.8% 5.8% 6.1% 4.2% 3.5% 3 1.2% 2.4% 2.5% 1.7% 1.5% 4+ 0.5% 1.0% 1.0% 0.7% 0.6%

Rows: Tepatitlán goals. Columns: Cancún goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Tepatitlán vs Cancún goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%

Over 1.5 85%

Over 2.5 64%

Over 3.5 42%

Both teams to score: 63%
No goals (0–0): 5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Tepatitlán vs Cancún

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Tepatitlán	22%	4.60
	Draw	23%	4.36
	Cancún	55%	1.81
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	64%	1.55
	Under 2.5	36%	2.82
Both teams to score	Yes	63%	1.58
	No	37%	2.73
Double chance	1X (Tepatitlán or draw)	45%	2.24
	12 (either side)	77%	1.30
	X2 (draw or Cancún)	78%	1.28
Handicap -1	Cancún win by 2+	34%	2.95
	Push (exactly one goal)	21%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Tepatitlán and Cancún recent form

Tepatitlán 1W 1D 4L

Cancún 2W 3D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Tepatitlán at home

Record (W-D-L): 2-1-4
Win rate: 29%
Goals for / match: 1.14
Goals against / match: 2.14
Clean sheets: 0 of 7

They have won 2 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
They average 1.1 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
They have failed to score in 6 of 12 matches.

Cancún away

Record (W-D-L): 1-3-2
Win rate: 17%
Goals for / match: 1.33
Goals against / match: 2.17
Clean sheets: 1 of 6

They have won 5 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
They have kept 5 clean sheets in 12 matches.
They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Tepatitlán at home only, Cancún away only.

Tepatitlán vs Cancún head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: Tepatitlán 0 · draws 1 · Cancún 1.

0% 50% 50%

TepatitlánDrawsCancún

Previous meetings
Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
2026-03-29	Cancún	2-2	Tepatitlán	Liga de Expansión MX
2025-10-18	Tepatitlán	1-2	Cancún	Liga de Expansión MX

Other Apertura - 14 fixtures

Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Cruz Azul Hidalgo 2026-10-23

Before and after this match

Tepatitlán, previous: Piratas – Tepatitlán, 2026-10-18
Cancún, previous: Cancún vs Venados FC prediction

Prediction snapshot Cancún to win Predicted score 1 – 2 C Bet on Cancún