Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Cruz Azul Hidalgo preview
In the fixture between Alebrijes de Oaxaca and Cruz Azul Hidalgo, the 1X2 probabilities show Alebrijes at 36%, Cruz Azul Hidalgo at 35%, and a draw at 29%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which has an 8% chance of occurring.
The expected goals are close, with Alebrijes at 1.34 and Cruz Azul at 1.31. The model suggests there is a 49% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance for both teams to score. However, the recent form indicates inconsistency, as Alebrijes has won 2 out of their last 6 matches, while Cruz Azul has only won 1. This could affect the outcome.
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Cruz Azul Hidalgo: model vs market
| Source | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | Draw | Cruz Azul Hidalgo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36% | 29% | 35% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 36% | 29% | 35% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Alebrijes de Oaxaca and Cruz Azul Hidalgo expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.65
- Attack rating (Alebrijes de Oaxaca / Cruz Azul Hidalgo)
- 0.72 / 0.89
- Defence rating (Alebrijes de Oaxaca / Cruz Azul Hidalgo)
- 1.27 / 1.03
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Cruz Azul Hidalgo score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Alebrijes de Oaxaca goals. Columns: Cruz Azul Hidalgo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Cruz Azul Hidalgo goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Cruz Azul Hidalgo
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 36% | 2.76 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.50 | |
| Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 35% | 2.84 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49% | 2.03 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 1.97 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.82 |
| No | 45% | 2.23 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Alebrijes de Oaxaca or draw) | 65% | 1.54 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Cruz Azul Hidalgo) | 64% | 1.57 | |
| Handicap -1 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca win by 2+ | 17% | 5.91 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Alebrijes de Oaxaca and Cruz Azul Hidalgo recent form
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
2W 0D 4L
Cruz Azul Hidalgo
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Alebrijes de Oaxaca at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
Cruz Azul Hidalgo away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-3
- Win rate
- 14%
- Goals for / match
- 0.57
- Goals against / match
- 1.86
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 7
- They have won 2 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 12 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Alebrijes de Oaxaca at home only, Cruz Azul Hidalgo away only.
Other Apertura - 14 fixtures
- Tepatitlán v Cancún — match page 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Alebrijes de Oaxaca, previous: Leones Negros UDG vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca prediction
- Cruz Azul Hidalgo, previous: Cruz Azul Hidalgo v Mineros de Zacatecas analysis