Updated

Liga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 13

Cruz Azul Hidalgo vs Mineros de Zacatecas

· Estadio 10 de Diciembre, Jasso· Referee E. Miranda

Full time2 – 1

Alin prediction was Mineros de Zacatecas to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 2

7% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Cruz Azul HidalgoDrawMineros de Zacatecas

Cruz Azul Hidalgo vs Mineros de Zacatecas: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceCruz Azul HidalgoDrawMineros de Zacatecas
Model45%25%30%
Market33%26%42%
Published36%26%39%
Edge+12%0%-12%
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Cruz Azul Hidalgo vs Mineros de Zacatecas odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Mineros de Zacatecas, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-17.

Opened 2.20Now 2.20 -0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Cruz Azul Hidalgo2.762.81+0.05
Draw3.573.57+0.00
Mineros de Zacatecas2.202.20-0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Cruz Azul Hidalgo and Mineros de Zacatecas expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.76Cruz Azul Hidalgo
1.41Mineros de Zacatecas
Total expected goals
3.17
Attack rating (Cruz Azul Hidalgo / Mineros de Zacatecas)
0.89 / 1.17
Defence rating (Cruz Azul Hidalgo / Mineros de Zacatecas)
1.03 / 1.11

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Cruz Azul Hidalgo vs Mineros de Zacatecas score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.2% 4.9% 4.2% 2.0% 1.0% 1 6.3% 11.5% 7.4% 3.5% 1.7% 2 6.5% 9.2% 6.5% 3.0% 1.5% 3 3.8% 5.4% 3.8% 1.8% 0.9% 4+ 2.5% 3.5% 2.5% 1.2% 0.6%

Rows: Cruz Azul Hidalgo goals. Columns: Mineros de Zacatecas goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Cruz Azul Hidalgo vs Mineros de Zacatecas goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 84%
Over 2.5 61%
Over 3.5 39%
Both teams to score
64%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Cruz Azul Hidalgo vs Mineros de Zacatecas

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Cruz Azul Hidalgo36%2.81
Draw26%3.91
Mineros de Zacatecas39%2.58
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.561%1.63
Under 2.539%2.59
Both teams to scoreYes64%1.57
No36%2.75
Double chance1X (Cruz Azul Hidalgo or draw)61%1.63
12 (either side)74%1.34
X2 (draw or Mineros de Zacatecas)64%1.55
Handicap -1Mineros de Zacatecas win by 2+14%7.15
Push (exactly one goal)16%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Cruz Azul Hidalgo and Mineros de Zacatecas recent form

Cruz Azul Hidalgo 1W 2D 3L
Mineros de Zacatecas 2W 1D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Cruz Azul Hidalgo at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-2
Win rate
20%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
1.20
Clean sheets
1 of 5
  • They have won 2 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 12 matches.

Mineros de Zacatecas away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-3
Win rate
20%
Goals for / match
1.40
Goals against / match
2.60
Clean sheets
1 of 5
  • They have won 5 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
  • They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Cruz Azul Hidalgo at home only, Mineros de Zacatecas away only.

Other Apertura - 13 fixtures

Before and after this match