Monarcas vs CDS Tampico Madero preview
In the Liga de Expansión MX fixture, Monarcas has a 67% chance to win against CDS Tampico Madero, who has an 11% chance. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, with a 14% probability. Monarcas has an expected goals figure of 1.97, while CDS Tampico Madero sits at 0.67, indicating a significant attacking advantage for Monarcas.
However, the match could deviate from this prediction. The probability of Over 2.5 goals is 49%, and both teams to score stands at 43%. Recent form shows Monarcas with three wins in their last six matches, while CDS Tampico Madero has only one win in their last six. This disparity in form may impact the outcome.
Monarcas vs CDS Tampico Madero: model vs market
| Source | Monarcas | Draw | CDS Tampico Madero |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 67% | 22% | 11% |
| Market | 63% | 21% | 16% |
| Published | 64% | 21% | 15% |
| Edge | +4% | +1% | -5% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.97 vs 0.67.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Monarcas below the model: +3.9 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.50, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Monarcas vs CDS Tampico Madero odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Monarcas, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monarcas | 1.50 | 1.44 | -0.06 |
| Draw | 4.10 | 4.35 | +0.25 |
| CDS Tampico Madero | 5.22 | 5.78 | +0.55 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Monarcas and CDS Tampico Madero expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.64
- Attack rating (Monarcas / CDS Tampico Madero)
- 1.04 / 0.73
- Defence rating (Monarcas / CDS Tampico Madero)
- 0.78 / 1.05
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Monarcas vs CDS Tampico Madero score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Monarcas goals. Columns: CDS Tampico Madero goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Monarcas vs CDS Tampico Madero goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 43%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Monarcas vs CDS Tampico Madero
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Monarcas | 64% | 1.56 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.70 | |
| CDS Tampico Madero | 15% | 6.87 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49% | 2.04 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 1.96 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43% | 2.33 |
| No | 57% | 1.75 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Monarcas or draw) | 85% | 1.17 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.27 | |
| X2 (draw or CDS Tampico Madero) | 36% | 2.79 | |
| Handicap -1 | Monarcas win by 2+ | 42% | 2.36 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Monarcas and CDS Tampico Madero recent form
Monarcas
3W 2D 1L
CDS Tampico Madero
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Monarcas at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 7 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
CDS Tampico Madero away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-6
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.33
- Goals against / match
- 2.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 12 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Monarcas at home only, CDS Tampico Madero away only.
Monarcas vs CDS Tampico Madero head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Monarcas 1 · draws 2 · CDS Tampico Madero 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | CDS Tampico Madero | 1-0 | Monarcas | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2025-11-09 | Monarcas | 0-0 | CDS Tampico Madero | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2025-01-11 | Monarcas | 1-0 | CDS Tampico Madero | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2024-07-28 | CDS Tampico Madero | 1-1 | Monarcas | Liga de Expansión MX |
Other Apertura - 13 fixtures
- Correcaminos Uat v Dorados — match page 2026-10-17
- CA La Paz vs Tlaxcala 2026-10-17
- Cruz Azul Hidalgo v Mineros de Zacatecas — match page 2026-10-17
- Cancún vs Venados FC 2026-10-18
- Piratas v Tepatitlán — match page 2026-10-18
- Durango vs Tapatío — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Leones Negros UDG vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca — team news & stats 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Monarcas, previous: Tepatitlán – Monarcas, 2026-10-10
- CDS Tampico Madero, previous: CDS Tampico Madero v Durango analysis