Cancún vs Venados FC preview
Cancún faces Venados FC with a 54% probability of winning compared to Venados FC's 24%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with the expected goals of 2.23 for Cancún and 1.46 for Venados FC. The model suggests a strong chance for Over 2.5 goals at 71% and both teams to score at 69%.
Cancún's recent form shows 3 draws and 2 wins in their last 6 matches, while Venados FC has 3 wins and 3 losses. This could impact the outcome, as Venados FC might improve their performance after recent wins. The confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Cancún vs Venados FC: model vs market
| Source | Cancún | Draw | Venados FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54% | 22% | 24% |
| Market | 47% | 25% | 27% |
| Published | 49% | 24% | 27% |
| Edge | +7% | -3% | -4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.23 vs 1.46.
- The market prices Cancún below the model: +6.9 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.97, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Cancún vs Venados FC odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Cancún, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cancún | 1.67 | 1.95 | +0.28 |
| Draw | 4.00 | 3.66 | -0.34 |
| Venados FC | 4.20 | 3.36 | -0.84 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Cancún and Venados FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.69
- Attack rating (Cancún / Venados FC)
- 1.13 / 1.32
- Defence rating (Cancún / Venados FC)
- 0.94 / 1.10
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Cancún vs Venados FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Cancún goals. Columns: Venados FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Cancún vs Venados FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 69%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Cancún vs Venados FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cancún | 49% | 2.04 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.10 | |
| Venados FC | 27% | 3.76 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71% | 1.40 |
| Under 2.5 | 29% | 3.47 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69% | 1.44 |
| No | 31% | 3.25 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Cancún or draw) | 73% | 1.36 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Venados FC) | 51% | 1.96 | |
| Handicap -1 | Cancún win by 2+ | 34% | 2.95 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Cancún and Venados FC recent form
Cancún
2W 3D 1L
Venados FC
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Cancún at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-2
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.17
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 6
- They have won 5 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
Venados FC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-4
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 6 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Cancún at home only, Venados FC away only.
Cancún vs Venados FC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Cancún 3 · draws 1 · Venados FC 6.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-11 | Venados FC | 2-0 | Cancún | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2025-09-14 | Cancún | 1-0 | Venados FC | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2025-02-16 | Cancún | 1-2 | Venados FC | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2024-09-01 | Venados FC | 4-0 | Cancún | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2024-04-04 | Venados FC | 2-0 | Cancún | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2023-11-19 | Cancún | 2-1 | Venados FC | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2023-11-17 | Venados FC | 1-0 | Cancún | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2023-07-30 | Cancún | 2-1 | Venados FC | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2023-04-19 | Venados FC | 1-1 | Cancún | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2022-08-31 | Cancún | 1-2 | Venados FC | Liga de Expansión MX |
Other Apertura - 13 fixtures
- Correcaminos Uat v Dorados — match page 2026-10-17
- CA La Paz vs Tlaxcala 2026-10-17
- Cruz Azul Hidalgo v Mineros de Zacatecas — match page 2026-10-17
- Monarcas vs CDS Tampico Madero — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Piratas v Tepatitlán — match page 2026-10-18
- Durango vs Tapatío — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Leones Negros UDG vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca — team news & stats 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Cancún, previous: Mineros de Zacatecas – Cancún, 2026-10-11
- Cancún, next: Tepatitlán vs Cancún prediction
- Venados FC, previous: Venados FC vs Leones Negros UDG: odds and pick