Venados FC vs Leones Negros UDG: model vs market
| Source | Venados FC | Draw | Leones Negros UDG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53% | 19% | 27% |
| Market | 48% | 24% | 28% |
| Published | 49% | 23% | 28% |
| Edge | +6% | -5% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.66 vs 1.92.
- The market prices Venados FC below the model: +5.5 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.93, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Venados FC vs Leones Negros UDG odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Venados FC, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Venados FC | 1.91 | 1.90 | -0.01 |
| Draw | 3.75 | 3.80 | +0.05 |
| Leones Negros UDG | 3.25 | 3.25 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Venados FC and Leones Negros UDG expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.58
- Attack rating (Venados FC / Leones Negros UDG)
- 1.44 / 1.45
- Defence rating (Venados FC / Leones Negros UDG)
- 1.15 / 1.03
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Venados FC vs Leones Negros UDG score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Venados FC goals. Columns: Leones Negros UDG goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Venados FC vs Leones Negros UDG goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 80%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Venados FC vs Leones Negros UDG
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Venados FC | 49% | 2.03 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.38 | |
| Leones Negros UDG | 28% | 3.59 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 83% | 1.20 |
| Under 2.5 | 17% | 6.06 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 80% | 1.25 |
| No | 20% | 4.97 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Venados FC or draw) | 72% | 1.39 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Leones Negros UDG) | 51% | 1.97 | |
| Handicap -1 | Venados FC win by 2+ | 35% | 2.85 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Venados FC and Leones Negros UDG recent form
Venados FC
3W 0D 3L
Leones Negros UDG
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Venados FC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.40
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They average 3.4 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Leones Negros UDG away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-0-1
- Win rate
- 83%
- Goals for / match
- 2.17
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Venados FC at home only, Leones Negros UDG away only.
Venados FC vs Leones Negros UDG head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Venados FC 1 · draws 0 · Leones Negros UDG 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | Venados FC | 2-1 | Leones Negros UDG | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2025-11-02 | Leones Negros UDG | 1-0 | Venados FC | Liga de Expansión MX |
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