Tlaxcala vs Piratas: model vs market
| Source | Tlaxcala | Draw | Piratas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39% | 26% | 35% |
| Market | 29% | 28% | 43% |
| Published | 32% | 27% | 41% |
| Edge | +10% | -1% | -9% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.15, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Tlaxcala vs Piratas odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Piratas, 5 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tlaxcala | 3.23 | 3.12 | -0.10 |
| Draw | 3.30 | 3.30 | +0.00 |
| Piratas | 2.06 | 2.10 | +0.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Tlaxcala and Piratas expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.03
- Attack rating (Tlaxcala / Piratas)
- 1.11 / 1.08
- Defence rating (Tlaxcala / Piratas)
- 1.18 / 0.79
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Tlaxcala vs Piratas score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Tlaxcala goals. Columns: Piratas goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Tlaxcala vs Piratas goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 62%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Tlaxcala vs Piratas
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tlaxcala | 32% | 3.16 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.67 | |
| Piratas | 41% | 2.43 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58% | 1.71 |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 2.40 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62% | 1.62 |
| No | 38% | 2.63 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Tlaxcala or draw) | 59% | 1.70 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Piratas) | 68% | 1.46 | |
| Handicap -1 | Piratas win by 2+ | 17% | 5.98 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Tlaxcala and Piratas recent form
Tlaxcala
3W 2D 1L
Piratas
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Tlaxcala at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-2
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 2.40
- Goals against / match
- 1.80
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have converted 2 of 5 penalties (40%).
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Piratas away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-2
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 0.83
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Tlaxcala at home only, Piratas away only.
Other Apertura - 12 fixtures
- Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Correcaminos Uat — team news & stats 2026-10-09
- Tapatío vs CA La Paz 2026-10-09
- Tepatitlán v Monarcas — match page 2026-10-10
- Venados FC vs Leones Negros UDG 2026-10-10
- Dorados v Cruz Azul Hidalgo — match page 2026-10-11
- Mineros de Zacatecas vs Cancún — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- CDS Tampico Madero vs Durango 2026-10-11