Tapatío vs CA La Paz preview
Tapatío faces CA La Paz in Liga de Expansión MX, with the model showing a 37% chance for both teams to win. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which occurs with a 9% probability. Both teams to score stands at 64%, while Over 2.5 goals has a higher likelihood at 61%.
Tapatío has a recent form of L-W-L-L-D-W, while CA La Paz shows a stronger trend with L-W-W-D-W-W. The expected goals are 1.67 for Tapatío and 1.49 for CA La Paz. A potential upset could occur if CA La Paz continues its strong recent form, or if Tapatío improves its performance. The confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Tapatío vs CA La Paz: model vs market
| Source | Tapatío | Draw | CA La Paz |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41% | 26% | 33% |
| Market | 36% | 25% | 39% |
| Published | 37% | 25% | 37% |
| Edge | +5% | 0% | -5% |
- The market prices Tapatío below the model: +4.9 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.67, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Tapatío vs CA La Paz odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Tapatío, 5 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tapatío | 2.51 | 2.50 | -0.01 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.60 | -0.00 |
| CA La Paz | 2.35 | 2.34 | -0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Tapatío and CA La Paz expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.16
- Attack rating (Tapatío / CA La Paz)
- 1.06 / 1.27
- Defence rating (Tapatío / CA La Paz)
- 1.02 / 0.88
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Tapatío vs CA La Paz score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Tapatío goals. Columns: CA La Paz goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Tapatío vs CA La Paz goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 64%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Tapatío vs CA La Paz
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tapatío | 37% | 2.67 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.96 | |
| CA La Paz | 37% | 2.68 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61% | 1.64 |
| Under 2.5 | 39% | 2.57 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64% | 1.57 |
| No | 36% | 2.77 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Tapatío or draw) | 63% | 1.60 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or CA La Paz) | 63% | 1.60 | |
| Handicap -1 | Tapatío win by 2+ | 22% | 4.60 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Tapatío and CA La Paz recent form
Tapatío
2W 1D 3L
CA La Paz
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Tapatío at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-1
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
CA La Paz away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-1
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 2.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game on the road against 1.8 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Tapatío at home only, CA La Paz away only.
Tapatío vs CA La Paz head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Tapatío 1 · draws 1 · CA La Paz 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-10 | CA La Paz | 2-2 | Tapatío | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2025-08-03 | Tapatío | 2-0 | CA La Paz | Liga de Expansión MX |
Other Apertura - 12 fixtures
- Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Correcaminos Uat — team news & stats 2026-10-09
- Tepatitlán v Monarcas — match page 2026-10-10
- Tlaxcala vs Piratas — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Venados FC vs Leones Negros UDG 2026-10-10
- Dorados v Cruz Azul Hidalgo — match page 2026-10-11
- Mineros de Zacatecas vs Cancún — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- CDS Tampico Madero vs Durango 2026-10-11