Tepatitlán vs Monarcas preview
In the Liga de Expansión MX fixture, Tepatitlán faces Monarcas, with the market indicating a 55% chance for Monarcas to win. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.00 for Tepatitlán and 1.87 for Monarcas.
Both teams to score stands at 55%, suggesting a strong possibility of goals from both sides. Tepatitlán's recent form shows one win in six matches, while Monarcas has won four of their last six. This contrast in form could impact the outcome, as Tepatitlán's struggles may hinder their ability to compete effectively against Monarcas.
Tepatitlán vs Monarcas: model vs market
| Source | Tepatitlán | Draw | Monarcas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 19% | 25% | 56% |
| Market | 22% | 23% | 55% |
| Published | 21% | 23% | 55% |
| Edge | -3% | +2% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.87 vs 1.00.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.70, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Tepatitlán vs Monarcas odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Monarcas, 5 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tepatitlán | 4.13 | 4.15 | +0.02 |
| Draw | 4.07 | 4.00 | -0.07 |
| Monarcas | 1.66 | 1.67 | +0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Tepatitlán and Monarcas expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.87
- Attack rating (Tepatitlán / Monarcas)
- 0.72 / 1.07
- Defence rating (Tepatitlán / Monarcas)
- 1.52 / 0.77
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Tepatitlán vs Monarcas score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Tepatitlán goals. Columns: Monarcas goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Tepatitlán vs Monarcas goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Tepatitlán vs Monarcas
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tepatitlán | 21% | 4.69 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.28 | |
| Monarcas | 55% | 1.81 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55% | 1.83 |
| Under 2.5 | 45% | 2.21 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.83 |
| No | 45% | 2.20 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Tepatitlán or draw) | 45% | 2.24 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Monarcas) | 79% | 1.27 | |
| Handicap -1 | Monarcas win by 2+ | 33% | 2.99 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Tepatitlán and Monarcas recent form
Tepatitlán
2W 0D 4L
Monarcas
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Tepatitlán at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-4
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.17
- Goals against / match
- 2.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They average 0.8 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 9 matches.
Monarcas away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-2
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 7 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Tepatitlán at home only, Monarcas away only.
Tepatitlán vs Monarcas head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Tepatitlán 1 · draws 0 · Monarcas 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | Monarcas | 3-2 | Tepatitlán | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2025-10-04 | Tepatitlán | 3-2 | Monarcas | Liga de Expansión MX |
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